Mid-Summer Classic

Since 2003, when Bud Selig overreacted to his debacle tie game in Milwaukee, the home field advantage in the World Series has been awarded to the winner of the All-Star game. In those five years, the team with the home field advantage has won the World Series three times and lost twice. So it's not big deal, right? Well, in the 16 World Series leading up to that (1985-2001) the team with the home field advantage was an astonishing 14-2.

Since 1963 there have been 46 All-Star games; 45 if you don't count that one. In that stretch, the National League has had separate winning streaks of 11 games, 8 games, and 3 games. The American League is currently on a 11-game winning streak and had another streak of 6 games. That's 80% of the games which were part of winning streaks of 6 or more. That's wild.

I wonder what Bud Selig was thinking at the end of this one, and whether anything more will be done to alter the game as a result of this near-miss. If Corey Hart's throw would have been about 3 feet to the right, it would have nailed Morneau at the plate and they would have played on. Or would they?

Guillermo Turnbow 2

In the month of July, Guillermo Mota has faced 17 batters and given up 8 runs. He entered tonight's game with a July ERA of 18.00 and it went up to 24.00. He's getting some very bad breaks from the defense, but he's also throwing a lot of batting practice pitches right over the heart of the plate. The Brewers are going to need him down the stretch and it seems like he's totally out of gas right now. At his age, I wonder if a trip to the DL would do him good. If he went on tomorrow, he would be eligible to come back on his 35th birthday.

UPDATE: I see that someone is taking a little harder stance on the issue than I am.

Home Run Derby Hangover

Ryan Braun is heading to the Home Run Derby. He will be the seventh player to represent the Brewers in the event.

"If I'm invited, I'll do it for sure," Braun said on Wednesday. "I think you owe it to the fans. If you're lucky enough to be invited, I think you should do it."

By contrast, Yankees slugger Alex Rodriguez will sit out the Home Run Derby, despite being the Major League home run leader last year and despite the game being played in his home stadium. He prefers to protect his swing.

In 2005, Bobby Abreu hit a record 41 home runs in the Home Run Derby. The rest of the season he hit only 6 in 265 at bats. Last Year David Wright of the Mets hit 20 homers before participating in the Derby and only 6 after. Do we need to worry about Ryan Braun ruining his swing and jepordizing his second half production by participating in the Home Run Derby this year?

I compiled the pre- and post- All-Star Game stats of every player who has participated in the Home Run Derby in the last 5 years. In terms of raw numbers, yes there has been a drop off in home run production from those who participated:

	HR
1st half	839
2nd half	604

(Stats represent 40 players and over 25,000 plate appearances.)

However, those numbers don't tell the entire story. If you convert all of their stats to averages, a drop off is much less apparent:

	BA	SLG	HR/PA
1st half	0.301	0.570	0.066
2nd half	0.297	0.550	0.061

Consider a couple of things. The All-Star Game is played slightly after the mid-way point of the season. It stands to reason that there would be more of anything before the break than after. Also, the players selected to participate in the Home Run Derby are players who likely are having high power production first halfs - often way above their career norms. The Derby has featured such non-sluggers as Bret Boone (24 1st half homers), Hank Blaylock (23), and Hee-Seop Choi (13). It shouldn't be surprising if these players come back to earth after the All-Star Game and see lower home run numbers.

For every player who has had a drop off in home run production in the second half, there's another who clearly did not. Last year Matt Holiday hit 15 before the break and 21 after. Prince Fielder was 29 and 21. Ryan Howard had 21 before and 26 after.

I think the Home Run Derby hangover is a myth. Ryan Braun should participate and Brewers fans should have nothing to worry about when he does so. Alex Rodriguez should stop snubbing his fans and participate too. By all indications, his swing is just fine.

Cubs Dance With The Ugly Sister

Career Earned Run Averages:

	Rich	CC
	Harden	Sabathia
August	4.12	3.59
September	4.90	2.88

Mark of a Champion

My boss, who is only the most casual of Brewers fans, asked me yesterday to what I attribute the Brewers resurgence. "Is it because of that Attanasio guy?", she asked. I gave her some standard off-the-shelf answer, but then I pondered that question the rest of the day and the more I did, the more the answer became clear. Yes, it is because of that Attanasio guy.

For years under the Selig administration, Brewers fans were preached to about how it's impossible to put a winning product on the field because of the economic climate of the game. The Brewers were held up as the poster child for the plight of small market teams. They struggled to draw 10,000 fans to a game and the play on the field was so horrible that it was embarrassing to invite friends to a game.

Enter Mark Attanasio. Same small market, same fans, same stadium, basically the same economic landscape, but he has completely turned this organization around - not only with money, but with smart business decision making. The Brewers organization now exudes professionalism from top to bottom. They have one of the most respected front offices in the game, filled with people who understand how to win; a concept totally foriegn to the Seligs.

The trade for C.C. Sabathia was not only intellegent, but necessary in the formula for bringing a world championship to Milwaukee. These guys get it folks. The Seligs didn't, and they never would have swung this deal.

* * *
On my way home from the game last night I was behind a guy on the freeway who also doesn't get it. He had a big sign duct taped to the back and sides of his car that read:

THANK YOU DOUG MELVIN FOR SCREWING OUR FUTURE

(Coincidentally, the guys lives only blocks from my house.) I thought...

1. This is a product of the years and years of hand wringing and pessimism of the Seligs.
2. Future? Really? Just how long do you want to wait?
3. Why would you duct tape anything to your car?

C.C.ing is Believing

I like it.

Look, I don't like losing Matt LaPorta any more than the next guy, but this is how you win championships in Major League baseball. Remember last year when the Brewers drafted LaPorta who was a first baseman in college, and a lot of people shook their heads because they already had Prince? This is a perfect example of why you draft the best player available with your high draft picks rather than try to fill needs on your team. If the Brewers had drafted someone other than LaPorta, they may not have been in a position to make this trade.

If Ned Yost sets his rotation properly after the All-Star break, Ben Sheets, C.C. Sabathia, and Manny Parra will start 6 of the 8 games the Brewers play later this month against the Cards and Cubs. Needless to say, these are huge games in the pennant race. (Here's a cheat sheet, Ned, in case you need one:)

Fri 7/18	@ SF	Sabathia
Sat 7/19	@ SF	Sheets
Sun 7/20	@ SF	Suppan
Mon 7/21	@ StL	Parra
Tue 7/22	@ StL	#5
Wed 7/23	@ StL	Sabathia
Thu 7/24	@ StL	Sheets
Fri 7/25	Hou	Suppan
Sat 7/26	Hou	Parra
Sun 7/27	Hou	#5
Mon 7/28	ChC	Sabathia
Tue 7/29	ChC	Sheets
Wed 7/30	ChC	Suppan
Thu 7/31	ChC	Parra

C.C. Sabathia has pitched twice at Miller Park in his career. The Brewers beat him on June 16, 2006 in an inter-league game, and he beat the Anaheim Angels last April 10 in a game that was moved to Miller Park due to snow in Cleveland.

Happy 4th!

I think - finally - my work schedule is easing up. I've got inbetweenhops.com moved to a new registrar which will hopefully quit randomly changing my settings and cause the blog to crash. I've got a couple of new pieces of research I've been working on, which I'll post in the next few days. I'm looking forward to the second half of the season and hopefully the ability to post with a little more regularity. Enjoy the holiday.

Guillermo Turnbow

OK. That's kind of a low blow because he's only pitched 2 games in July, but jeez...

A Scott Sighting

OK, now I've got people emailing me wondering if I'm alright and why I haven't been posting much. Yes, I'm ok. Just very busy.

A few random thoughts...

The Brewers have the third best record in the National League, yet if the season ended today they would not be one of the four teams in the playoffs.

Despite being nine games over .500, the Brewers have scored only two more runs than they have allowed this season (351-349). That kind of disparity between a win-loss record and run differential would normally be indicative of a team that's been very lucky rather than very good. The Brewers 17-6 record in 1-run games is also suggests that. Historically, a good record in close games is not and indicator of a good record overall. You could look at the other side of the coin and see that the Brewers are 26-28 in games decided by more than one run. But hey, the wins are in the book. We'll take them.

The Brewers team slugging percentage in April, May and June has been .392, .418 and .502 respectively. They have already hit four more home runs in June that they did in the entire month of May and there are still five games left to play.

The Brewers team ERA has been 4.44, 4.28 and 3.48 in the last three months. The ERA of the starters has been 2.98 in June. Luck or not, this has been a total team transformation.

How much do you think it will cost to resign the National League Cy Young Award winner this off-season?

Premature Jocularity

With yesterday's win and Cubs loss, the Brewers have gained three games in the standings in the last three days. The last time that happened was August 22-24 of 2006 when they swept the Colorado Rockies and moved from 7-1/2 games back to within 4-1/2 games of the first place Cardinals. The Brewers then went on to lose their next 10 games in a row, completely eliminating themselves from contention.

I'm not trying to throw cold water on this run the Brewers are on. I'm just pointing out that it's not necessarily indicative of things to come.

[My non-baseball life has been very hectic as of late. I'll get back to posting more as soon as I can.]

Stars Aligned

The Brewers have won 12 of their last 16 games. They've got their ace on the mound today, then head home for a 9-game home stand against three AL teams who will be playing in very unfamiliar territory without their DHs. Albert Pujols is out for three weeks as the Cardinals head into a 3-game series with the first place Phillies. Alfonso Soriano is out for six weeks as the Cubs head out for a 6-game road trip to AL cities where they will need an extra hitter. If there was ever a time for the Brewers to get back in contention in the NL Central, it's now.

The Brewers' record right now (34-31) is only one game worse than it was after the same number of games last year (35-30). The difference of course is that last year they had a 5-1/2 game lead in the Central Division and this year they are 7-1/2 games back. Last year everyone was saying that the team was playing great and overachieving. This year everyone says they're underachieving. It's all a matter of context. The reality is that this year they are playing just about equally as well as last. What's changed is the competition. With the injuries to Pujols and Soriano, hopefully the competition has just changed again.

Road Woes

The Brewers lost another road game. They are now 14-21 on the road compared to 19-10 at Miller Park - a difference of 8 games. But they are not alone. Three other NL teams, and notably one of them the Chicago Cubs, have worse home-road differentials than the Brewers.

TEAM	Overall	Home	Road	Diff
ATL	32-33	25-11	7-22	-14.5
CHC	41-24	27-8	14-16	-10.5
CIN	31-35	19-11	12-24	-10.0
MIL	33-31	19-10	14-21	-8.0
COL	25-39	15-15	10-24	-7.0
ARI	35-30	21-12	14-18	-6.5
NYM	30-33	17-12	13-21	-6.5
PIT	31-34	19-15	12-19	-5.5
HOU	33-32	17-11	16-21	-5.5
SDP	28-38	18-18	10-20	-5.0
FLA	35-29	21-14	14-15	-4.0
LAD	31-33	18-15	13-18	-4.0
PHI	39-27	21-13	18-14	-2.0
STL	39-27	21-13	18-14	-2.0
WSN	26-40	14-21	12-19	0.0
SFG	29-36	13-19	16-17	2.5

Interestingly, there seems to be no correlation whatsoever between a team's overall success and their home-road differential. I don't know if this is normally the case or just the case this year in the NL. If I decide to figure it out, I'll let you know.

Closer (Minded) Mentality

The more I watch Carlos Villanueva pitch, and the more often he performs well out of the bullpen, the more I think that he could be the Brewers long-term solution in the closer's role. Take a look at his career numbers as a starter and as a reliever:

	G	K/9	BA	OPS
Starter	21	6.1	.271	.831
Reliever	62	8.6	.219	.680

What I suspect will give some people pause at this suggestion is that Villanueva doesn't "seem" like a closer. He doesn't have that "closer's mentality".

Back in the 1970's, Al Hrabosky started this notion that in order to be an effective Major League closer, you have to be somehow abnormal. You have to look unkept, have a mop of hair, a long beard or funny mustache. Or you have to be fat, wear goggles and not ever tuck in your jersey. The history of Major League Baseball is littered with oddballs (1|2|3) who have been effective closers. Carlos Villanueva is not any of these things.

But while baseball has had it's share of goofs in the closer's role, it has had it's share of "normal" pitchers as well. Clean-cut, even tempered guys who went about their business and got their jobs done without calling an undue amount of attention to themselves. Mariano Rivera comes immediately to mind. He has never been a headline grabber in New York, yet will move to #2 on baseball's all-time saves list later this year or early next. The same can be said about Trevor Hoffman, the career leader in saves. John Franco is 4th on the career list. Randy Myers, Troy Percival, John Wetteland, Roberto Hernandez, Rick Aguilera, Tom Henke, and Jeff Montgomery are all in the top twenty. It is not a prerequisite that you be some sort of misfit in order to be an effective closer in the Major Leagues.

Carlos Villanueva is only 24 years old. He has a long career ahead of him and the Brewers don't have a lot of other long-term options. If you were to guess who the closer will be in 2010, you would have a hard time coming up with another candidate. Torres? Too old. Mota, Shouse? Ditto. Gagne? Please. Then what - Turnbow??? The answer may be right under their nose.

* * *
UPDATE: I just did a little more research. At the time Mariano Rivera was exactly as old as Carlos Villanueva is today, he had yet to throw a single pitch in the Major Leagues. Their birthdays are only one day apart - Rivera, Nov. 29 and Villanueva, Nov. 28.

Brett Lawrie

Brett Lawrie was the Brewers' #1 pick in today's draft. He's listed as a C/2B. That reminded me of Craig Biggio who came up as a catcher and moved to second base. Both Lawrie and Biggio bat right handed. Lawrie is 5'11", 200; Biggio is 5'11', 180. In several clips of Lawrie's scouting video, his uniform is filthy dirty. When Biggio came up with the Astros, he was assigned uniform number 4, but later switched to 7. In Lawrie's video he wears both numbers 4 and 7 (and no others). Lawrie was the 16th pick in the draft; Biggio 22nd. Here's hoping that the similarities don't end there.

Holier Than Thou

The pompous, elitist snobs who are Bud Selig's Major League Baseball, who had the arrogance to take their money grubbing information licensing case against fantasy sports franchises to the U.S. Supreme Court, were dealt a blow today when the Court refused to hear the case. MLB Advanced Media was claiming the the statistics and names of Major League players were private, confidential information that fantasy leagues were illegally using to their financial gain. I would applaud this as a victory for the fans, but it completely disgusts me that it came to this. The powers that be in Major League baseball would like it if the game were confined to sophisticated, country club gated communities where only baseball insiders - those "in the know" - were allowed in, rather than have it exposed to and tarnished by us pee-ons (sic).