Lost for Weeks

I've been trying to estimate in my head the impact of losing Rickie Weeks for the rest of the season. Spinning around the radio dial yesterday I heard the words "horrible" and "devastating loss." Clearly, losing Weeks is not good news for the Brewers. He was having an All-Star season and his improved play has obviously played a part in the Brewers success. On the other hand, losing Weeks does not all of the sudden turn the Brewers into the Washington Nationals. So what is the impact really?

I know there are formulas that turn every last statistic into wins and losses, and one could use those to calculate how many wins Rickie would generate over a replacement level player. That's not what I'm trying to do. I am trying to figure it out using only logic and common sense - sort of a cocktail napkin calculation. Suppose then that to start the discussion you say that losing Rickie Weeks will cost the Brewers five games in the standings this year. Is that a fair estimate?

Suppose that with a healthy and productive Rickie Weeks, the Brewers are a 90-win team. Suppose also that the Washington Nationals are a 60-win team. Forget for now that the Nationals have Ryan Zimmerman and Adam Dunn. Let's just think for them as a team of replacement level players, because even with Zimmerman and Dunn, that's basically what they are. That means that with a healthy and productive Weeks, the Brewers are 30 games better than the Nationals. To whom then do you attribute those 30 wins?

Well, if you say that Weeks is worth five, don't you have to say that Braun and Fielder are worth at least seven each? Trevor Hoffman and Yovanni Gallardo would also have to be worth seven. Right there with those five players we're up to 33 wins - without giving any credit at all to anyone else. It's safe to say then that the impact of losing Rickie Weeks is something less than five games in the standings. It's probably less than four because you run into the same math problems with that number too. In the end, I think three would be a good guess - that Rickie Weeks represents about one-tenth of the difference between the Brewers and the Washington Nationals.

I think we tend to overestimate the impact of any one player on a team. We look at the Brewers' record since Trevor Hoffman is off the DL and attribute all of that success to him. While some of it is, there have been a lot of other things happening May that weren't happening in April. It's not all Trevor Hoffman. Neither has it been all Rickie Weeks.

Now, the three games that the Brewers lose with Weeks may well mean the difference between making the playoffs or not. But with Weeks out, maybe Mat Gamel will come along and chip in a win or two. Maybe Manny Parra will chip in one. And of course maybe a lot of other bad things could happen too. The point is that if the Brewers fail to make the playoffs this year it will not be only because they lost Ricke Weeks.

30:30 Vision

Over the off-season I argued that the Brewers had a reasonable chance to become the 12th team in Major League history to have four 30-home run hitters. After shooting my mouth off like that, I'm obviously going track it and point out the accuracy of my prediction at the most opportune times. Tonight is one of those times. The Brewers currently have four players who are on a 30 home run pace - Braun (39), Weeks (39), Fielder (34), and Cameron (34). J.J. Hardy (25) is just a tad off the pace. Corey Hart (15) and Bill Hall (15) could get back in the game with just a couple of long balls.

The Defense Rests

In Saturday night's Brewers-Cubs game, there were 40 walks plus strikeouts - 20 on each side. Going back to 1970, I can only find five 9-inning games with more than that:

7/10/1997, Philadelphia at Florida - 45
5/4/1975, Houston at San Francisco - 43
4/17/1986, Texas at Milwaukee - 42
9/10/1998, St. Louis at Cincinnati - 41
9/18/1995, Florida at Philadelphia - 41

There were four other games with 40.

Halled Away

Before tonight's game even starts. I'd like to go on the record to say that I don't agree with the switch of Bill Hall to left field. Just based on observation, it seems that Hall has saved a bunch of runs this year with his glove. This move, to me, weakens them defensively more than they would be hurt offensively by playing Duffy, a rather good fielder, in left. I hope the game isn't decided by a ground ball down the third base line that Bill Hall kicks around in the corner.

Substitutes

I've noticed something a tiny bit odd about Ken Macha's lineup selection. So far this year, not counting Mike Rivera playing in place of Jason Kendall, on eight occasions Macha has sat one of the regular starters (Hall 2, Cameron 2, Hardy 2, Weeks 1, Hart 1) . Five of those eight times have been in games when Manny Parra is the starting pitcher. That's a bit disproportionate to what you would expect.

I don't know if that's enough yet to call it a trend or if it has any significance. I don't know if it has anything to do with the fact that Parra is 0-4 or that the Brewers are 0-5 when he starts. I was just something I noticed and thought I'd go count. I'll keep any eye on it and see if it continues.

Still Here

I know there are a small handful of people still checking in. I'm still here. I've been busy creating a new online database system for my fantasy baseball league and working on a couple of rather involved baseball research studies, which together have been consuming about 95% of the 12 hours a day I feel I can devote to baseball. The database system is in place and working fine. That should free up a little more time for In-Between Hops.

I Want Barack Obama to Fail

Rush Limbaugh opened a hornet's nets just before the Presidential Inauguration by proclaiming that he wanted Barack Obama to fail. Many in the media took the comments to mean that he wanted the economy to fail and wanted America to fail. Limbaugh reiterated that it was not the case that he wanted the country to fail - only that he wanted Obama to fail in furthering his political agenda. And so they've been bickering back and forth ever since.

I was arguing this very point today with a friend of mine and offered up the following analogy which I think clarifies Limbaugh's position. Suppose that it were reported in the media one day that Doug Melvin were in negotiations with Barry Bonds' agent for him to sign a contract with the Brewers. Some Brewers fan would welcome the news with open arms. Afterall, these are the Brewers, this is Doug Melvin, they have drunk the Kool-Aid and agree with anything that Doug Melvin and the Brewers do just because they are Doug Melvin and the Brewers. They never question. Never second guess. It's a violation of their fan-hood to disagree with anything the Brewers do.

You on the other hand, are a thinking fan. You feel that signing Bonds would be ruinous to the Brewers. You feel he would be a distraction, a disruption, and isn't that good of a ballplayer anymore. He would take playing time away from a younger, developing player and cause disharmony in the clubhouse.

So, do you want Doug Melvin to fail?

Yes. You want him to fail in his attempt to sign Bonds. But that doesn't mean that you necessarily want other things he attempts to fail (unless he's thinking of signing Roger Clemens too.) It certainly doesn't mean that you want the Brewers team or organization to fail. To say that you want Doug Melvin to fail does not mean you are no longer a fan of the Brewers. Quite the opposite. You recognize that there is a distinct difference between wishing for an entity to succeed and wishing for the person running that entity to get whatever he wants. You also have enough conviction to not sit idly by while someone is flushing an organization you love down the sewer under the guise of leadership.

Isn't baseball great? It casts light on everything.

A-Roid

I need to give credit to poster Chris at Bill James online for this suggestion, but it's a great point.

Bud Selig is clearly very upset about Alex Rodriguez' admitting steroid use. So much so that he suggested considering reinstating Hank Aaron as the home run champ. Why now and not two years ago when Bonds broke the record? You see, A-Rod held a very important card in Bud Selig's legacy. He was ultimately going to be the solution to the conundrum of Barry Bonds. Bonds as home run champ does not sit right with anyone. But Rodriguez was quickly approaching and likely would have passed Bonds' mark in a few years. Had he been 'clean' that would have, in an odd way, exonerated Selig for the whole steroid mess. Now, no matter what, Selig will go to his grave with a steroid user as the home run champ - the record that the man in baseball he admired most once held. Pretty heavy stuff.

Macha vs. Kendall - Round 2

Back when Ken Macha was hired, I commented that I had a negative initial reaction because of an apparent history of bad blood between him and his players. One of the players from whom he took a verbal right hook was Jason Kendall.

"I don't want Billy to take heat for this [Macha's firing] because this is what needed to happen''

Well, now Macha has not so elegantly informed Jason Kendall, via the media, that his playing time is going to be cut this year.

“That would keep Jason fresh so that when we get to crunch time, he’s got some gas left,” said Macha. “I could see him getting at least one day off a week. He’s not going to be happy about it. That’s just too bad.”

"That's just too bad."?!?!? No word from Kendall yet. We'll see if he swings back.

I'm telling you, I don't like it. There are a lot of pouters on this team. A manager who's this cold to the players has got to be enough of an a-hole to back it up and Macha doesn't seem to be. I'm worried this isn't going to work.

Buy Low

It would seem that right now would be the ideal time for the Brewers to sign Ben Sheets. Crazy? Think it through. With Sheets unable to pitch, the Brewers hold all of the cards. If any other team signs him, even to a multi-year deal, they will give up draft picks before he even throws a pitch. Nobody is going to do that. The Brewers obviously wouldn't give up picks by signing him so they have least to lose.

Suppose they sign Sheets now for a 2-year deal - maybe $2M this year and an incentive laden deal for 2010. They would settle the dispute over who pays for his surgery and avoid any PR fallout. They would potentially have him back for a pennant run in September and they would have him under contract in 2010, when they could either trade him or earn back the free agent draft picks. Sure, it's a roll of the dice, but it has a big upside.

Who knows - maybe they could bring him back next year as the closer. That might be a role better suited for his fragile body.

Solving the SP Shortage

Last season the Brewers went into spring training with eight pitchers considered contenders for the starting rotation. The talk was all about who makes it and with whom you must part ways. Times were good.

This year all the talk is about whether the Brewers can afford to sign another starter. Or more accurately, whether they can afford not to. They go into the season with only two true veteran starters and one of those two on the fringe of acceptability. The fifth starter, Seth McClung, really isn't a starter and really never was. The top two in the rotation are very young and very susceptible to being overworked. It is becoming apparent that the payroll will not support another MLB caliber pitcher. What's a team to do?

The In-Between Hops Plan:

1. A four man rotation: Gallardo, Parra, Bush, and Suppan
2. Limit the starters to 5 IP per start - no exceptions
3. Pick 3 relievers - Villanueva, McClung, and Riske would probably do - to pitch three inning stints - the 6th through 8th innings of every game - on a regular rotation
4. A closer for the 9th - Hoffman
   
5. Four or five extra relievers for various miscellaneous and mop-up roles

Let me pick this apart. Item 1: Any four-man rotation looks better on paper than the same four guys and a marginal fifth starter.

Item 2: They key to avoiding overwork - and this is key - would be to limit the starters to five innings per start; no if's, and's or but's. You take them out even if they're throwing a no-hitter. This is about the season; not about a single game. They're probably going to give up a hit next inning anyway. You get them out of the game while there's still some gas in the tank rather than wait until they run dry. You do it with your car. You do it with your starting pitchers. It will make for a shorter recovery period for their next start in four days.

There are 162 games in a season. Suppose that in two of those games, because of double headers or whatever, you use a spot starter. That leaves 160 games, divided four ways - 40 starts each. With a strict five inning limit, the cap on the number of innings from any starter would be 200. Most likely it would be less because they won't always make it to the fifth, will miss a start here or there, or the schedule dictates that you use a spot starter more than twice. That brings them all in around 180 innings; probably a decent workload.

The starters will still get most of their wins - (valuable things to have when salary negotiation time come around) - because they are pitching through the fifth inning. The couple they'd lose by leaving games early would be made up for by the eight extra starts each would get.

Item 3: This strategy would create a new role for three relievers. They would each pitch (or hope to pitch) a three inning stint every third day on a regular rotating schedule. They would know which days they are pitching and could prepare for the games both mentally and physically in much the same way a starter would. Because they would each only pitch in one game of a three-game series, the opposition would not have the luxury of seeing them twice. (And in fact, would have to scout and prepare for seeing a significant number of innings from six different pitchers, not just three.) Three innings every third day works out to 162 innings on the season at most. Probably 120-130 would be realistic. Seth McClung and Carlos Villanueva seem fully suited for a role like this. This role could also be used as a transition to and from the starting rotation or to and from the bottom of the bullpen. I'm thinking Chris Capuano here. Jeff Suppan if he struggles. Mitch Stetter if he pitches well.

Item 4: No change in the closer's role. You still have Hoffman for the ninth.

Item 5: These are your mop up guys. You bring them in in the 4th or 5th if the starter struggles, in the 7th or 8th if the middle relievers struggle, or at the end of the game to clean up a mess.

The beauty of this plan is that every pitcher on the staff would have a clearly defined role. You would have an automatic system to limit Gallardo's and Parra's innings, yet get eight extra starts out of each of them. The workloads of the relievers would be spaced out much more evenly over the course of the season. You would have three pitchers at the ready to jump into the starter's role if needed with very little change in preparation or workload, and four pitchers at the ready to jump into one of the middle relief roles. There would be a lot less throwing up in the bullpen (old Jerry Coleman joke). With clearly defined roles, there would be very few wasted warm-ups. The games would go faster with fewer pitching changes. Finally there's economics. An extra middle reliever to fill the spot opposite McClung and Villanueva would costs much less than an extra starter. Everybody wins.

"There's a Basic Disagreement About Corey's Value"

Corey Hart appears to be heading to a salary arbitration hearing. The Brewers are offering $2.7M while Hart is asking for $3.8M. Here may be a key piece of evidence:

	Curtis Granderson	Corey Hart
	2004-2007	2004-2008
Yrs	4	5
AB	1395	1412
R	232	203
H	390	391
2B	76	93
3B	36	18
HR	50	55
RBI	162	212
BB	131	86
K	366	278
BA	0.280	0.277
OBP	0.343	0.323
SLG	0.493	0.485
SB	35	53
2009 Salary	$3.5M

Granderson's salary is part of a 5-year deal that tops out at $13M in 2013.

A key part of arbitration hearings is a comparison to similar players. Add this to the fact that the Brewers had a record attendance last year and made the playoffs - also contributing factors. I think Doug Melvin might be in some trouble on this one.

Here's another interesting comparison:

	Andre Either	Corey Hart
	2006-2008	2004-2008
Yrs	3	5
AB	1368	1412
R	190	203
H	409	391
2B	90	93
3B	14	18
HR	44	55
RBI	196	212
BB	139	86
K	233	278
BA	0.299	0.277
OBP	0.364	0.323
SLG	0.482	0.485
SB	11	53

Either is also arbitration eligible for the first time. He is asking for $3.75M; the Dodgers are offering $2.65M - numbers eerily similar to Hart's case. Either's arbitration hearing is February 17 - the day before Hart's. If the Dodgers win, expect a last minute settlement. If Either wins, the Brewers are sunk.

A Case For 30-30-30-30-(30?)

Eleven teams in the history of baseball have had four 30 home run hitters in a season. The first were the 1977 LA Dodgers when Steve Garvey (33), Reggie Smith (32), Roy Cey (30) and Dusty Baker (30) all hit the once magic number. The other ten times have occurred since 1995, with the 2006 Chicago White Sox (Jermaine Dye 44, Jim Thome 42, Paul Konnerko 35, and Joe Crede 30) being the most recent. The Colorado Rockies account for four of those times when in 1995, 96, 97 and 99, four of their players reached the 30 home run mark.

The 2009 Brewers have a chance to add their name to that list.

THE GIMME'S

Fine. You can never just assume that any play is going to hit 30 home runs, but Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder are about as close as you come. They each turn 25 in May and are clearly on the uphill parts of their careers. Both hitting 40 home runs seems much more likely than either one of them falling short of 30.

PLAUSIBLE

J.J. Hardy hit 24 last year and 26 the year before. At 26 years old he should be entering his most productive seasons. Padding last year's number seems more likely than not.

Mike Cameron hit 25 home runs in 120 games last season. That's a 30 home run pace. He reached 30 with the Mets in 2004 and twice got into the 20's in his two seasons before joining The Crew in a very tough park in San Diego. In a full season in Miller Park, it's not unthinkable that he could toy with 30.

POTENTIAL

Corey Hart had 14 home runs at the mid-way point of last season. He tailed off misserably and memorably at the end of the year, but at 27 years old should also have some bounce back in his numbers. Between the last half of 2007 and the first half of 2008 he hit 28 round trippers. It's not unthinkable that he could put together two solid halfs. (In his career, Hart has hit almost a third of his home runs in the month of June.)

So there's five. You want another? Add Rickie Weeks. He still has too much potential to think he could never do it. Also remember that Bill Hall is only two seasons removed from a 35 home run campaign.

If you assume the following probabilities of each of the Brewers' hitters reaching 30 or more home runs in the 2009 season:

Fielder - 80%
Braun - 80%
Hardy - 50%
Cameron - 40%
Hart - 25%
Weeks - 15%
Hall - 5%

then there is (according to a mathematical model I created) a 30% chance that the Brewers will have four 30 home run hitters, and a 7% chance that they will break the Major League record with five.

In researching this, I discovered that the Florida Marlins are also well positioned to challenge this record. Look at their top five home runs hitters from last year:

Hanley Ramirez - 33 HRs in 2008/25 yrs old in 2009
Mike Jacobs - 32/28
Dan Uggla - 32/29
Jorge Cantu - 29/27
Cody Ross - 22/28

They don't have the big boppers like Braun and Fielder, but they've got a bunch of guys who are right there.

Show Him The Money

I'm rather surprised at the $8 million arbitration figure submitted by Scott Boras on behalf of Prince Fielder. I thought they would go higher than that - maybe as high as $10 million given the Brewers' playoff appearance and record attendance last year.

I'm wondering if the Brewers didn't think they same thing and submitted $6 million thinking they might settle at $8 million. Once the figures were submitted, Doug Melvin sure seemed to perk up about the prospects of settling with Fielder and avoiding a hearing. I'll guess that they settle at $7.4 - $7.5 million. That's a deal for a player of Fielder's skill and youth.

Hells Bells

Let me start by saying that having Trevor Hoffman as the Brewers' closer is much better than having Jeff Suppan like I suggested in my last post. That "off the wall" comment was just that. Desperate times called for desperate measures. But with Hoffman here, these are no longer desperate times.

Hoffman's signing is worlds better that Eric Gagne last year. He's much cheaper and much more dependable. Some have looked at Hoffman's 3.77 ERA last year and called it evidence of a decline. Not so. There has been very little appreciable change in Hoffman's skill stats over the course of his career. His stats last year were really no different than his career norms:

(click on graph for larger view)


I am not at all bothered by this being only a 1-year deal with no club option. If he pitches well, he will like it here and want to come back. And if not...