Sudden Unsudden Death

So the new NFL overtime rule that's supposed to make it more fair by guaranteeing each team a chance to score sure worked well in yesterday's Steelers/Broncos game, didn't it?

I would change the rule so that the team scoring last in regulation play has to kick off in overtime.  Yesterday's game was a perfect example of why this would work.

The Steelers scored a touchdown with three minutes and something left in the game. The PAT tied the score.  But would they have gone for the 1-point conversion knowing that they would have to kick of to the Broncos with three minutes on the clock and then have to kick off to them again in overtime?  Or would they have forced the issue and gone for a 2-point conversion knowing that even if they missed there were a few minutes left to try to get the ball back?  I guess we'll never know.

The flip of a coin shouldn't have as big of an influence as it does in who wins a close football game - especially a playoff game.  I think the NFL needs to go back to the drawing board and rethink this.

J$Online

Milwaukee's Journal Sentinel, Inc. will soon begin charging a fee for its JSOnline site.  I am assuming that this will cover all content under the JSOnline banner including Tom Haudricourt's blog and the Bernie's Crew blog with Jim Breen and the bunch.

I am very fickle about paying for web content.  There is so much free content out there that I can usually find what I'm looking for without needing my PalPay password, but I think I would miss my daily stop at these two sites.  Haudricourt is obviously very connected with things inside the Brewers organization and in the volume of Bernie's Crew writings you almost always find something worth while.

[I should note that Tom Haudricourt did an outstanding job covering the Ryan Braun saga in its initial days.  For the first 24-48 hours he was the go-to source for breaking information.]

So will I pay the J$Online fee?  I guess I'll give it a shot and see what I get.  I am expecting (lilsten to this JSOnline!!!) to be inundated with way fewer ads if I'm paying for the site.  Especially the ones that fly up in my face over the top of what I am reading.

I am also hoping that some of the adolescent trolls that post in the comments section of articles will go away too.  I would put the average age of the people who post in there right now at about twelve.  Or should I describe them in terms of their average IQ?

Veras

Some quick stats on Jose Veras:

	ERA	G	WHIP	HR/9	SO/BB
2008-09	4.33	107	1.398	1.3	1.81
2010-11	3.78	127	1.252	0.8	2.11

That should work nicely in the bullpen.

Speak

As this whole thing starts to gel, it is striking me that we need to get an official statement from Major League Baseball. They are the ones we have not yet heard from in any way. They also need to expedite the resolution of the appeal. January isn’t good enough. Now that the story is out, this needs to be resolved one way or another by next week. Letting this play out in the court of public opinion is harming both parties.

Saturday, disbelief.

Yesterday, denial.

Today, anger...

Not Caught in the Act

ESPN REPORT: The positive result was triggered by elevated levels of testosterone in Braun's system...

OMG Facts, 10/11/2011: Men's testosterone levels rise by 45.7% after 7 days of not ejaculating!

That's got to be it.

Albert

Now that the Albert Pujols signing has had a chance to sink in a little there are a couple of snippets I found rather poignant.

"Pujols could have been Derek Jeter. He could have been Cal Ripken. He could have been Ernie Banks or Ryne Sandberg or, yes, Stan Musial. Instead he'll be Alex Rodriguez or Manny Ramirez or Gary Sheffield, just another big-bopping mercenary playing out the string in a city he chose because it offered the biggest selection of his favorite color: green."

Gregg Doyle - CBS Sports

“You shouldn’t be surprised, but that doesn’t mean you can’t be disappointed.”

Bob Costas

As a Brewers fan, having Albert Pujols out of the division and out of the league will certainly help.  I also don't begrudge any player earning himself as big of a paycheck as he possible can.  I don't begrudge any professional that.

But I love the game of baseball.  I love it's history and it's heritage.  I find it sad when something like this happens.  Sad for the fans of baseball; the people who made Albert Pujols who he is.

I have been to St. Louis.  It is the home of some of the most loyal and devoted baseball fans on this planet.

I feel for you.

You didn't deserve this.

And to you Albert Pujols, as you take that last $20 million to the bank - that little extra that you earned by leaving for another town - know that there is a small child in St. Louis who won't earn as much money as you do in one hundred lifetimes.  But all the same, he idolizes you.  He wants to grow up and be just like you.  He wears red pajamas to bed and screams until he's hoarse when he comes to watch you play.  He has t-shirts with your name on the back, baseball cards with your picture, bobble-heads of you on his dresser, and a lifesize FatHead sticker of you on his bedroom wall.  He hits a whiffle ball over the fence in his back yard and throws his plastic bat aside like you do as he watches it fly out.  Then as he runs from the swing set to the lilac bush he hisses to himself, "H-h-h-h-h.  HOME RUN!  ALBERT PUJOLS!  H-h-h-h-h.  AND THE CROWD GOES WILD!"  After he touches the light pole, he runs back to his Frisbee laying in the grass and stomps on it with both feet and kisses his fingertips and points to the sky.

But these last couple of nights his red pajamas have been stained with tears.  You have broken his heart Albert Pujols.  His hero is gone.  And by the time another like you comes along he will have long outgrown those t-shirts.  The swing set will be gone, and he will be too old to play wiffle ball.

Nice job.

EDIT:  There's an fabulous piece by Tango that presents this from a different point of view.  Really well done and worth a read.

Sweet Grapes

In support of my argument yesterday that the Brewers should be trying to shop John Axford, here are the Major League leaders in saves since 2005:

Rk	Player	SV
1	Francisco Rodriguez	277
2	Mariano Rivera	267
3	Francisco Cordero	253
4	Jose Valverde	224
5	Jonathan Papelbon	219
6	Joe Nathan	216
7	Trevor Hoffman	208
8	Brian Fuentes	195
9	Brad Lidge	193
10	Huston Street	178
35	John Axford	71
39	Derrick Turnbow	65

For Rodriguez, that total of course includes the second half of last season when he got a grand total of zero.

Did you also know that Rodriguez is only one year older than John Axford?

What the Brewers have on their roster right now is one of the elite closers in the game and the league leader in saves last season.  And it's two different guys.  Given Axford's pre-arbitration contract status, it would seem that he would be the more valuable commodity on the open market.  If the Brewers could land a quality setup guy and a solid AAA prospect third baseman (which there happen to be a glut of at the moment), it would be foolish not to make the deal.  To think that Rodriguez should be nothing more than a setup guy is foolish also.  It's a waste of his talent.

So why the headline?  When you wind up not getting something that you really wanted and then after the fact claim that you didn't want it anyway, it's called 'sour grapes.'  So if you wind up getting something that you didn't really want but then after the fact realize how good it really is, it's called what?

Closer the Deal

The overnight consensus response to K-Rod accepting arbitration seems to be, "well, maybe we can trade him."  That's nuts.  The guy to try to trade now is John Axford.  He would land you much, much more in return.  Then maybe you can sign K-Rod to a two or three year deal before his arbitration hearing and your good.

While Axford's career is off to a very good start, you have much more of a known and reliable commodity in Rodriguez.  Axford's value may never be higher than it is right now and knowing that you have a closer who is as good in the fold, it would be insane not to shop him around.

Lest I remind you of a guy named Derrick Turnbow.  Enough said.

$200 Million Man

So apparently three different teams have offered Albert Pujols a 10-year, $200+ million contract - the Cardinals, the Marlins, and one other unidentified team.  From the Brewers perspective, that means that either Pujols will no longer be playing for their toughest division rival - or - a big chunk of the Cardinals payroll will be tied up in one player for a very long time, perhaps handcuffing them from filling other holes.  I see that as a win-win.

One would assume then that at least one of the two losers in this bidding war will be in on Prince Fielder and he will likely get an offer or two not far from 10/200; or about double what the Brewers say they are able to offer him.  God forbid that the Cardinals would wind up signing him, hey?  Unless of course that other unidentified team in on Pujols is... Naw.

16-0

Just changing sports for a minute here...  I've been saying this all fall and I stand by it - going 16-0 in the regular season is a bigger deal than winning the Super Bowl.

Someone wins the Super Bowl every year.  But only two teams in the last 60 years have won every regular season game.

Try this little quiz...

Who was the only team to win every regular season game and go on to win the Super Bowl, completing a perfect season?

Who is the only other team to win every regular season game but then lose in the Super Bowl?

Which team beat them in the Super Bowl?

Which team won the Super Bowl the next year after that?

Or the year before that?

For the average fan, those questions get progressively harder.

Everyone remembers the perfect season.  It is much more rare and therefore a greater accomplishment than a Super Bowl win.  Even if the Packers clinch the #1 seed in the NFC, if they are in a position to play for a perfect regular season it would be a huge mistake to bench their starters and jeopardize that opportunity.

A Very Bad Year

Joe Poznanski looked back over the last 80 years to find the best vintage year for baseball players being born.  In 1931, Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle, Ernie Banks, Eddie Mathews, Ken Boyer, and Jim Bunning were all born.  This he graded an A+; the best year ever.

My year, 1961, had Don Mattingly, Andres Galaraga, John Kruk, Jimmy Key, and Kevin Gross as its five best players.  Kevin Gross.  He graded this year an F+; tied with 1932 as the worst ever.

This is why I do marketing research, math, statistics, and write a blog instead of play baseball for a living.

Write a blog when I don't have a smashed thumb.

It's healing.  I'll be back soon.

Somewhat Amazing Fact

The American League has won Game 2 of the World Series in 14 of the last 16 years.  The exceptions are last year when the Rangers beat the Giants and in 2001 when the Diamondbacks beat the Yankees.

Batting Race Chart

Here is a chart that shows almost all of the possible combinations of at bats in tonight's game for Ryan Braun and Jose Reyes, and who would win the batting title in each outcome.

(Click for larger view)

UPDATE:  I suppose it's appropriate the the cells in this chart for Jose Reyes - who left this afternoon's game after going 1 for 1 on a bunt single - are all shaded in pink.

Braun needs 3 hits in his first 4 at bats.  Then he too can leave the game for the purpose of securing the batting title.

Re-streak

The Brewers have not lost back-to-back ballgames since July 23-24.  They are now on a streak of 31 consecutive games in which they have not lost back-to-back.  This ties the second longest such streak in the entire history of the franchise.  The longest streak ever - 34 games - was earlier this year, from May 7th through June 12th.

Do you remember that the Brewers started this season 0-4 and had a 7-game losing streak in early May?  Since then, over the last 103 games, they are 68-35; a .660 winning percentage.  That percentage over 162 games would net 107 wins.

In fact, the Brewers have never in their history won 68 out of 103 games.  Even if you've been following them since 1970 like I have, you have never seen them as hot as they are right now.  Pretty amazing stuff.

Lefty

There's been a lot of wondering whether the Brewers should try to acquire a left handed reliever for the stretch run and playoffs.  First, every day that goes by makes the stretch run less and less relevant.   The math for winning the division is way in the Brewers favor right now.  And for the playoffs? - they've already got one - Chris Narveson.  Almost every team's 5th starter goes to the bullpen in the playoffs.  Even with fewer days off in the playoff schedule this year, it's highly unlikely that the Brewers would consider Narveson in a starting role when they could pitch Grienke, Gallardo, Marcum or Wolf on normal rest.  There - problem solved.