Wednesday, April 2, 2008

NJIT Professor Picks Brewers

My economist friend who scours obscure websites for ammo to use in political arguments with me ran across this article in Science Daily about "indefatigable" math professor Bruce Bukiet of the New Jersey Institute of Technology whose detailed mathematical models predict that the Brewers have the best chance of any team in the NL Central to win the division:

The expected number of wins for each team is:

  • AL East: Yankees -- 98; Red Sox -- 98; Blue Jays -- 86; Rays -- 75; Orioles -- 63;
  • AL Central: Tigers -- 96; Indians -- 87; White Sox -- 79; Twins -- 74; Royals 63;
  • AL West: Angels -- 92; Mariners -- 78; A's -- 75; Rangers -- 70;
  • NL East: Mets -- 92; Braves -- 89; Phillies -- 84; Nationals -- 73; Marlins -- 70;
  • NL Central: Brewers -- 84; Cubs -- 83; Reds -- 81; Cards -- 80; Astros -- 79; Pirates -- 71;
  • NL West: Rockies -- 85; Padres -- 85; Diamondbacks -- 83; Dodgers -- 82; Giants -- 75;
He points out that according to the model, the division will be very close between every team except Pittsburgh, with any other team having a realistic chance of winning.

This study kind of ties in with my Sunday post about predictions.

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