Tuesday, October 28, 2008

CC Math

Rumor is that the Brewers may to offer CC Sabathia a 4-year $100 million contract to stay in Milwaukee. The idea is that offering him more per year but for fewer years might get a deal done.

Doubters say that by taking such an offer he would probably be turning down and additional $50 million in guaranteed money that he could get by signing a 6-year deal somewhere else.

Look at this deal from the Brewers perspective. Suppose that every fan that walks in Miller Park spends on average $40. (I don't know what the exact figure is, but I think that's pretty close.) To pay Sabathia's salary, you would need 625,000 fans. To put it another way, suppose that if the Brewers signed Sabathia, they would equal last year's attendance figure of 3.1 million. Is it plausible that without Sabathia the attendance would dip to 2.5 million? I think it would be very reasonable to suspect that.

Now look at it from Sabathia's standpoint. He's not giving up $50 million. After four years, he'll still be playing ball and can still sign a contract with somebody else. Even if his production declines, you would assume that he would still be in the $10 million per year range at that point. Couple that with the fact that the Brewers' deal might be $3-4 million more now than he might get if he signed a longer deal elsewhere, he's really not risking all that much.

I think this deal would be a win-win and I would be very happy if it went down.

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