Not that baseball needs another new statistic...
A Quality Start (QS) is credited to a starting pitcher who pitches at least 6 innings and allows 3 or fewer earned runs. There were 2,344 quality starts in the Major Leagues in 2009. A full 49% of all games started were credited as quality starts.
It would seem that for an event to be called "quality", it ought to happen quite a bit less than half of the time. This would be like calling a quality at bat anytime you got a hit, a walk, or hit the ball hard. There is some truth to that, but what is real quality?
I came up with a new, as easy to compute statistic which I call a Real Quality Start (RQS). To get an RQS, a pitcher must allow fewer base runners than innings pitched. Simple. In a mathematical formula it's equally simple:
There were 946 Real Quality Starts in the majors last season - only 20% of all games started. Comparing the two stats side-by-side, you can see that RQS is a much more stringent test of true quality:
| QS | RQS | |
| Number | 2344 | 946 |
| % all starts | 49% | 20% |
| W (by SP) | 1293 | 631 |
| L (by SP) | 389 | 86 |
| W/L Pct. | 0.769 | 0.880 |
| ERA | 2.04 | 1.40 |
The Major League leaders in RQS last season were:
| Pitcher | Team | RQS |
| Tim Lincecum | SF | 15 |
| Dan Haren | Ari | 14 |
| Javier Vazquez | Atl | 13 |
| Chris Carpenter | StL | 12 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 12 |
| Jon Lester | Bos | 12 |
| Randy Wolf (FA) | LAD | 11 |
| Josh Johnson | Fla | 11 |
| Jered Weaver | LAA | 11 |
| Ricky Nolasco | Fla | 11 |
| Ted Lilly | ChC | 10 |
| Josh Beckett | Bos | 10 |
| Bronson Arroyo | Cin | 10 |
| Edwin Jackson | Det | 10 |
| Zack Greinke | KC | 10 |
| Felix Hernandez | Sea | 10 |
| Wandy Rodriguez | Hou | 10 |
| Carl Pavano (FA) | Cle | 9 |
| Roy Halladay | Tor | 9 |
| Barry Zito | SF | 9 |
| Mark Buehrle | ChW | 9 |
| Kevin Correia | SD | 9 |
| Gavin Floyd | ChW | 9 |
| Justin Verlander | Det | 9 |
| Scott Feldman | Tex | 9 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LAD | 9 |
| Jarrod Washburn (FA) | Sea | 8 |
| Johan Santana | NYM | 8 |
| Joel Pineiro | StL | 8 |
| Rich Harden (FA) | ChC | 8 |
| Scott Kazmir | TB | 8 |
| Scott Baker | Min | 8 |
| Jason Hammel | Col | 8 |
| John Danks | ChW | 8 |
| Matt Garza | TB | 8 |
| J.A. Happ | Phi | 8 |
| John Lannan | Was | 8 |
| Jair Jurrjens | Atl | 8 |
| Kevin Millwood | Tex | 7 |
| Jason Marquis (FA) | Col | 7 |
| John Lackey (FA) | LAA | 7 |
| Cliff Lee | Cle | 7 |
| Jorge De La Rosa | Col | 7 |
| Matt Cain | SF | 7 |
| Cole Hamels | Phi | 7 |
| Joe Saunders | LAA | 7 |
| Chad Billingsley | LAD | 7 |
| James Shields | TB | 7 |
| Jeff Niemann | TB | 7 |
| Luke Hochevar | KC | 7 |
| Ross Ohlendorf | Pit | 7 |
| Clayton Richard | ChW | 7 |
| Trevor Cahill | Oak | 7 |
Noticeably absent from this list are any Milwaukee Brewers - and noticeably present are a number of free agent who the Brewers are rumored to have some interest in. Look how far down the list John Lackey is - and how many other free agents are above him. The more of this stuff I see, the more I think Lackey is going to be a Suppan-esque albatross for whoever signs him.
I was a little surprised that the Brewers declined Bradon Looper's option. Looper actually tied for second on the team with 4 RQS:
| Gallardo | 6 |
| Looper | 4 |
| Bush | 4 |
| Parra | 2 |
| Suppan | 2 |
| Burns | 1 |
| Narveson | 1 |
What that chart really shows though is just how pitiful the Brewers' pitching was in 2009.

0 comments:
Post a Comment