Monday, June 14, 2010

CONSISTENCY

Bill Schroeder opened tonight's broadcast by praising Ken Macha for using the same top five in the batting order the last three days, saying that using a set lineup was necessary to consistently score runs.  Like many things Bill Schroeder says, this is crap.

In their history (through last year), there have been 1,792 games in which the Brewers used the same top five in the batting order as the game before.  They averaged 4.41 runs in those games.  In the 4,588 games when they used a different top five in the batting order, they scored 4.48 runs per game - slightly more.

I actually expected the data to show Schroeder to be right, but not because consistency has anything to do with it.  With a good hitting team, I'd think you'd tend to stick with a set lineup more so than with a weaker hitting team.

So many people make a big deal about batting orders.  They really don't matter much at all.

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