I did a quick analysis of the relative success rate of pitchers drafted out of high school vs. pitchers drafted out of college.
I looked at all pitchers drafted in the first round of the 2000-2004 drafts - long enough ago to tell who's going to make it and who's not, but not too long ago that scouting and evaluating methods would have changed much.
In those years, a total of 111 pitchers were drafted in the first round - 61 from a 4-year college, 45 from high school, and 5 from junior college. The five from junior college included only one player who has played in the Majors - Phil Dumatrait.
Of the pitchers drafted out of college, 39 (64%) have played in the Major Leagues. The top 10 ranked by WAR are:
Of the players drafted out of high school, 45 (56%) have made the Majors. A slightly smaller percentage, but a much more impressive top 10:
Doug Melvin said in an interview yesterday:
“College pitchers can get there early but they can leave early, too."I give him credit for having done his homework and for using the pick as it probably should be used - a long term investment with a high ceiling rather than a quick fix.