Tuesday, July 6, 2010

STANDINGS MATH

When I was growing up, I always considered being 10 games out of first place a point of no return.  Hit ten back and you're done.  No more hope of winning your division.  (That's what you had to do to make the post-season back then.)

The Brewers find themselves 10-1/2 games out of first place this morning.  That's not quite the low point of the season, but it's very close.  They were 11 games back on June 5th, but it means that in the last month they haven't made up any ground.

The Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals right now are on pace to win 93 and 89 games respectively. If that continues, the Brewers would probably need to win somewhere around 91 games in order to catch them and make the playoffs (figuring that there are still 12 games left against the Reds and if you got hot you're likely to knock them back a few.)  That means they would need to go 54-25 the rest of the way.  A .684 W/L percentage.  Better than two out of three.  That's a winning pace that would win 111 games over a full season.

The Brewers have never in their history won 54 games in a 79 game stretch.  The most is 52 in the second half of 1982.  I don't think the 2010 Brewers are quite as good as the 1982 team.  If anyone can theorize how they can all of the sudden can be, please let me know.  Otherwise, sorry to say that the Brewers no longer have any reasonable chance of making the playoffs this year.  I think the focus now needs to be how many games we can win next year.

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