Tuesday, July 6, 2010

TRADE ME NOW OR TRADE ME LATER

I'd like to challenge the notion that it's better to trade a position player in the off-season than now.  The logic, according to Doug Melvin, is that because of the player movement created in the off-season by free agency, there are more teams shopping for a particular position then than there are during the season.

What that logic ignores is that there are 3-4 teams in the pennant race right now who might be willing to overpay for a particular position player, a first baseman maybe, who wouldn't be willing to give up as much during the off-season.  If, for example, you had a first baseman available right now, you might be able to take advantage of some other team's desperation and get more for him now than you would if you waited.

Plus, you are only trading him to one team - not all of the other 29.  The average offer you get in the off-season may be better than the average offer you get now, but the best offer now will probably be better than the best offer in the off-season.  The best offer is the only one that matters.

Then there's the PR aspect.  What would people think if you traded your slugging first baseman this off-season for a bunch of prospects who aren't going to play until 2012?  How is that going to sell tickets next year?  You couldn't do it.  So you'd be forced to acquire in the trade some established Major Leaguers with far lower ceilings than the prospects.

I believe that if you have a guy like - alright, Prince Fielder - it's better to trade him now than to wait.  I don't believe you can get more for him in the off-season.  And just because people like Doug Melvin say you can doesn't mean you have to accept it as truth.

[Now, if you want to believe that Doug Melvin is just saying that to posture and doesn't really believe it himself, I think that would be OK.  Personally, I only believe half of what Doug Melvin says.  I just don't know which half.  I think that's what makes him an outstanding GM.  I actually trust that he'll handle this whole situation rather well.]

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