Sunday, December 5, 2010

MARCUM DOWN AS AN ACE



2010WLERAIPHHRBBKWAR
Gallardo
14
7
3.84
185
178
12
75
200
2.1
Marcum
13
8
3.64
195
181
24
43
165
3.8

Dare I say that Shawn Marcum is every bit as good as Yovani Gallardo?  Perhaps a bit better.  Would you trade away Brett Lawrie to get Yovani Gallardo?  Or put it another way - which of the two would you rather loose?  Case closed.  This is a solid trade.

Of course Gallardo has a bigger up side in that he is four years younger.

When the Brewers sign Craig Counsell again and everyone drools all over themselves, I'm going to write a blog post about how I think teams grossly overrate locally born players - as if playing close to where you were born somehow makes you magically better.  I think the Blue Jays fell into this trap and overpaid for Lawrie.

Over his career, despite being right handed, Marcum has pitched much better against lefties than against righties.

Marcum has pitched over 110 pitches in a game only four times in his career (once each in '06, '07, '08 and '10).  In the next game after his 110+ pitch outings his stats were:

IPHitsER
3.153
3.198
122
4107

That's and ERA of 15.43.  I hope someone tells Ron Roenicke this.  Marcum's ability to pitch deep into ballgames will be the same as his ability to record a lot of outs with 100 pitches.

If you look for a down side to Marcum, you will notice that his BAbip's over his last three seasons have been .269, .246, and .280 - well below the norm of .300 and well below Gallardo's .331 last season.  Regression to the mean and a much below average Brewers' defense will be working against him.  But then we don't have the Yankees and Red Sox in our division either.  Marcum is 6-1 with a 3.34 ERA in 10 starts against the National League in his career.

3 comments:

KL Snow said...

Yovani has one N.

Scott Segrin said...

I knoo. I'm realy a horibel speler. Expeshially wen it comes to naymes.

kyle.w.willkomm said...

Being a MN resident Brewer fan I disagree. The money and fandom brought in by Joe Mauer is probably well calculated by the team. They get way more tickets and merchandise with Mauer here. That Mauer value is useless to all other teams besides the Twins but if I own Joe Mauer and am not the Twins I am going to attempt to extract that value when trading him and if I am the Twins I will put it in the equation.

 
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