Tuesday, December 14, 2010

MINOR VALUE

In his great blog MiLB Prospects, Matt Garrioch ranks the Top 2000 Minor League baseball players for 2011.  Yankees catcher Jesus Montero heads the list at #1.  Outfielder Mike Trout of the Angels is second.  Bryce Harper of the Nationals is third, and it goes from there.

At #9 - there's Brett Lawrie; the chip the Brewers cashed in for Shaun Marcum.  Any other Brewers in the top 10?  Hee, hee, hee - silly me.  How about in the top 20?  Let's see... nope.  In the top 50?  Looking, looking... no again.  How about the top 75?  Ummm... nope.  Top 100???  No again.  The top ranked Brewers minor league player is Jake Odorizzi who is ranked 124th among all minor league players in professional baseball.  Wow.  Given that there are 30 teams, you would expect on average that each team would have four or so players in the top 120.  The Brewers have none.

The top ten minor leaguers in the Brewers organization, per Garrioch's rakings are:

RankNamePOS
124Jake OdorizziP
135Scooter GennettSS
226Caleb GindlOF
296Kentrail DavisOF
323Cameron GarfieldC
372Jeremy JeffressP
394Hunter Morris1B
403Cutter DykstraOF
448Tyler ThornburgP
456James NelsonP

I created a graduated scale formula to assign a value to each player based only on his ranking.  The top player on the list was assigned a value of 50 points.  The 4th ranked player is valued at 40 points.  The 19th best player is at 30 points.  The 116th player gets 20 points, the 907th player gets 10 points, and so on down to the 2,000th player who gets about 6 points.  The values are obviously designed to drop off more rapidly at the top of the list than at the bottom - just like they would if you assigned points subjectively.

Using this formula, I calculated the total "value" of all of the minor league players in each organization.  The top 5 are:

TeamValue
New York Yankees1001
Boston Red Sox963
Cleveland Indians907
Tampa Bay Rays878
Seattle Mariners852

I guess there's more to the success of the Yankees and Red Sox than just money.

...and the bottom five:

TeamValue
LA Dodgers592
Florida Marlins551
Milwaukee Brewers545
Detroit Tigers536
Chicago White Sox528

How the mighty have fallen. The Brewers minor league system, which but a few years ago was the envy of all of baseball has fallen nearly to the bottom of all Major League teams.  Only the Tigers and White Sox have more poorly stocked minor league systems.

And isn't it interesting to see Seattle in the top five?  Don't we know their GM somehow?

7 comments:

KL Snow said...

Scary thought: I know at least one Brewer on the list of 2000 (Brandon Sizemore) was released yesterday.

Another is Josh Romanski, who's in the Yankee org now.

There's also Brent Brewer, who quit to play college football.

If you pull those three from the list, do the Brewers drop to 29th or 30th?

Scott Segrin said...

I actually checked this and as far as I can tell, none of the players cut yesterday were in the Top 2000 list.

KL Snow said...

My mistake. I must've spotted Sizemore in a previous list.

Where would the Brewers have ranked if Lawrie was still in the system?

Scott Segrin said...

Well, by my formula Lawrie would be valued at 34.8 points. That would be enough to move the Brewers ahead of Florida, but still below the Dodgers. I played around with a variety of different valuation formulas and no matter how you do it, the results come out pretty much the same. It's a sad situation.

kyle.w.willkomm said...

Can he truly call Eric Arnett worthless already?

Scott Segrin said...

I don't think Arnett is a snub. When you have a 6.18 ERA over two seasons in nothing higher than A ball, I don't think it would be hard to find 2,000 players better. I doubt his formulas include draft position, which they'd have to for Arnett to be ranked higher because that's really his only positive at this point.

kyle.w.willkomm said...

How's our value now? :)

 
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