In-Between Hops

Sudden Unsudden Death

2012-01-09T07:52:00.001-06:00

So the new NFL overtime rule that's supposed to make it more fair by guaranteeing each team a chance to score sure worked well in yesterday's Steelers/Broncos game, didn't it?

I would change the rule so that the team scoring last in regulation play has to kick off in overtime. Yesterday's game was a perfect example of why this would work.

The Steelers scored a touchdown with three minutes and something left in the game. The PAT tied the score. But would they have gone for the 1-point conversion knowing that they would have to kick of to the Broncos with three minutes on the clock and then have to kick off to them again in overtime? Or would they have forced the issue and gone for a 2-point conversion knowing that even if they missed there were a few minutes left to try to get the ball back? I guess we'll never know.

The flip of a coin shouldn't have as big of an influence as it does in who wins a close football game - especially a playoff game. I think the NFL needs to go back to the drawing board and rethink this.

J$Online

2011-12-14T05:55:00.000-06:00

Milwaukee's Journal Sentinel, Inc. will soon begin charging a fee for its JSOnline site. I am assuming that this will cover all content under the JSOnline banner including Tom Haudricourt's blog and the Bernie's Crew blog with Jim Breen and the bunch.

I am very fickle about paying for web content. There is so much free content out there that I can usually find what I'm looking for without needing my PalPay password, but I think I would miss my daily stop at these two sites. Haudricourt is obviously very connected with things inside the Brewers organization and in the volume of Bernie's Crew writings you almost always find something worth while.

[I should note that Tom Haudricourt did an outstanding job covering the Ryan Braun saga in its initial days. For the first 24-48 hours he was the go-to source for breaking information.]

So will I pay the J$Online fee? I guess I'll give it a shot and see what I get. I am expecting (lilsten to this JSOnline!!!) to be inundated with way fewer ads if I'm paying for the site. Especially the ones that fly up in my face over the top of what I am reading.

I am also hoping that some of the adolescent trolls that post in the comments section of articles will go away too. I would put the average age of the people who post in there right now at about twelve. Or should I describe them in terms of their average IQ?

Veras

2011-12-13T05:40:00.000-06:00

Some quick stats on Jose Veras:

	ERA	G	WHIP	HR/9	SO/BB
2008-09	4.33	107	1.398	1.3	1.81
2010-11	3.78	127	1.252	0.8	2.11

That should work nicely in the bullpen.

Speak

2011-12-12T09:48:00.000-06:00

As this whole thing starts to gel, it is striking me that weneed to get an official statement from Major League Baseball. They are the ones we have not yet heard fromin any way. They also need to expeditethe resolution of the appeal. Januaryisn’t good enough. Now that the story isout, this needs to be resolved one way or another by next week. Letting this play out in the court of publicopinion is harming both parties.

Saturday, disbelief.

Yesterday, denial.

Today, anger...

Not Caught in the Act

2011-12-10T19:24:00.001-06:00

ESPN REPORT: The positive result was triggered by elevated levels of testosterone in Braun's system...

OMG Facts, 10/11/2011: Men's testosterone levels rise by 45.7% after 7 days of not ejaculating!

That's got to be it.

Albert

2011-12-10T04:44:00.001-06:00

Now that the Albert Pujols signing has had a chance to sink in a little there are a couple of snippets I found rather poignant.

"Pujols could have been Derek Jeter. He could have been Cal Ripken. He could have been Ernie Banks or Ryne Sandberg or, yes, Stan Musial. Instead he'll be Alex Rodriguez or Manny Ramirez or Gary Sheffield, just another big-bopping mercenary playing out the string in a city he chose because it offered the biggest selection of his favorite color: green."

Gregg Doyle - CBS Sports

“You shouldn’t be surprised, but that doesn’t mean you can’t be disappointed.”

Bob Costas

As a Brewers fan, having Albert Pujols out of the division and out of the league will certainly help. I also don't begrudge any player earning himself as big of a paycheck as he possible can. I don't begrudge any professional that.

But I love the game of baseball. I love it's history and it's heritage. I find it sad when something like this happens. Sad for the fans of baseball; the people who made Albert Pujols who he is.

I have been to St. Louis. It is the home of some of the most loyal and devoted baseball fans on this planet.

I feel for you.

You didn't deserve this.

And to you Albert Pujols, as you take that last $20 million to the bank - that little extra that you earned by leaving for another town - know that there is a small child in St. Louis who won't earn as much money as you do in one hundred lifetimes. But all the same, he idolizes you. He wants to grow up and be just like you. He wears red pajamas to bed and screams until he's hoarse when he comes to watch you play. He has t-shirts with your name on the back, baseball cards with your picture, bobble-heads of you on his dresser, and a lifesize FatHead sticker of you on his bedroom wall. He hits a whiffle ball over the fence in his back yard and throws his plastic bat aside like you do as he watches it fly out. Then as he runs from the swing set to the lilac bush he hisses to himself, "H-h-h-h-h. HOME RUN! ALBERT PUJOLS! H-h-h-h-h. AND THE CROWD GOES WILD!" After he touches the light pole, he runs back to his Frisbee laying in the grass and stomps on it with both feet and kisses his fingertips and points to the sky.

But these last couple of nights his red pajamas have been stained with tears. You have broken his heart Albert Pujols. His hero is gone. And by the time another like you comes along he will have long outgrown those t-shirts. The swing set will be gone, and he will be too old to play wiffle ball.

Nice job.

EDIT: There's an fabulous piece by Tango that presents this from a different point of view. Really well done and worth a read.

Sweet Grapes

2011-12-09T06:01:00.001-06:00

In support of my argument yesterday that the Brewers should be trying to shop John Axford, here are the Major League leaders in saves since 2005:

Rk	Player	SV
1	Francisco Rodriguez	277
2	Mariano Rivera	267
3	Francisco Cordero	253
4	Jose Valverde	224
5	Jonathan Papelbon	219
6	Joe Nathan	216
7	Trevor Hoffman	208
8	Brian Fuentes	195
9	Brad Lidge	193
10	Huston Street	178
35	John Axford	71
39	Derrick Turnbow	65

For Rodriguez, that total of course includes the second half of last season when he got a grand total of zero.

Did you also know that Rodriguez is only one year older than John Axford?

What the Brewers have on their roster right now is one of the elite closers in the game and the league leader in saves last season. And it's two different guys. Given Axford's pre-arbitration contract status, it would seem that he would be the more valuable commodity on the open market. If the Brewers could land a quality setup guy and a solid AAA prospect third baseman (which there happen to be a glut of at the moment), it would be foolish not to make the deal. To think that Rodriguez should be nothing more than a setup guy is foolish also. It's a waste of his talent.

So why the headline? When you wind up not getting something that you really wanted and then after the fact claim that you didn't want it anyway, it's called 'sour grapes.' So if you wind up getting something that you didn't really want but then after the fact realize how good it really is, it's called what?

Closer the Deal

2011-12-08T06:14:00.001-06:00

The overnight consensus response to K-Rod accepting arbitration seems to be, "well, maybe we can trade him." That's nuts. The guy to try to trade now is John Axford. He would land you much, much more in return. Then maybe you can sign K-Rod to a two or three year deal before his arbitration hearing and your good.

While Axford's career is off to a very good start, you have much more of a known and reliable commodity in Rodriguez. Axford's value may never be higher than it is right now and knowing that you have a closer who is as good in the fold, it would be insane not to shop him around.

Lest I remind you of a guy named Derrick Turnbow. Enough said.

$200 Million Man

2011-12-06T20:39:00.001-06:00

So apparently three different teams have offered Albert Pujols a 10-year, $200+ million contract - the Cardinals, the Marlins, and one other unidentified team. From the Brewers perspective, that means that either Pujols will no longer be playing for their toughest division rival - or - a big chunk of the Cardinals payroll will be tied up in one player for a very long time, perhaps handcuffing them from filling other holes. I see that as a win-win.

One would assume then that at least one of the two losers in this bidding war will be in on Prince Fielder and he will likely get an offer or two not far from 10/200; or about double what the Brewers say they are able to offer him. God forbid that the Cardinals would wind up signing him, hey? Unless of course that other unidentified team in on Pujols is... Naw.

16-0

2011-12-05T19:44:00.001-06:00

Just changing sports for a minute here... I've been saying this all fall and I stand by it - going 16-0 in the regular season is a bigger deal than winning the Super Bowl.

Someone wins the Super Bowl every year. But only two teams in the last 60 years have won every regular season game.

Try this little quiz...

Who was the only team to win every regular season game and go on to win the Super Bowl, completing a perfect season?

Who is the only other team to win every regular season game but then lose in the Super Bowl?

Which team beat them in the Super Bowl?

Which team won the Super Bowl the next year after that?

Or the year before that?

For the average fan, those questions get progressively harder.

Everyone remembers the perfect season. It is much more rare and therefore a greater accomplishment than a Super Bowl win. Even if the Packers clinch the #1 seed in the NFC, if they are in a position to play for a perfect regular season it would be a huge mistake to bench their starters and jeopardize that opportunity.

A Very Bad Year

2011-11-28T06:59:00.001-06:00

Joe Poznanski looked back over the last 80 years to find the best vintage year for baseball players being born. In 1931, Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle, Ernie Banks, Eddie Mathews, Ken Boyer, and Jim Bunning were all born. This he graded an A+; the best year ever.

My year, 1961, had Don Mattingly, Andres Galaraga, John Kruk, Jimmy Key, and Kevin Gross as its five best players. Kevin Gross. He graded this year an F+; tied with 1932 as the worst ever.

This is why I do marketing research, math, statistics, and write a blog instead of play baseball for a living.

Write a blog when I don't have a smashed thumb.

It's healing. I'll be back soon.

Somewhat Amazing Fact

2011-10-22T11:08:00.001-05:00

The American League has won Game 2 of the World Series in 14 of the last 16 years. The exceptions are last year when the Rangers beat the Giants and in 2001 when the Diamondbacks beat the Yankees.

Batting Race Chart

2011-09-28T07:07:00.003-05:00

Here is a chart that shows almost all of the possible combinations of at bats in tonight's game for Ryan Braun and Jose Reyes, and who would win the batting title in each outcome.

(Click for larger view)

UPDATE: I suppose it's appropriate the the cells in this chart for Jose Reyes - who left this afternoon's game after going 1 for 1 on a bunt single - are all shaded in pink.

Braun needs 3 hits in his first 4 at bats. Then he too can leave the game for the purpose of securing the batting title.

Re-streak

2011-08-28T21:38:00.001-05:00

The Brewers have not lost back-to-back ballgames since July 23-24. They are now on a streak of 31 consecutive games in which they have not lost back-to-back. This ties the second longest such streak in the entire history of the franchise. The longest streak ever - 34 games - was earlier this year, from May 7th through June 12th.

Do you remember that the Brewers started this season 0-4 and had a 7-game losing streak in early May? Since then, over the last 103 games, they are 68-35; a .660 winning percentage. That percentage over 162 games would net 107 wins.

In fact, the Brewers have never in their history won 68 out of 103 games. Even if you've been following them since 1970 like I have, you have never seen them as hot as they are right now. Pretty amazing stuff.

Lefty

2011-08-22T19:17:00.000-05:00

There's been a lot of wondering whether the Brewers should try to acquire a left handed reliever for the stretch run and playoffs. First, every day that goes by makes the stretch run less and less relevant. The math for winning the division is way in the Brewers favor right now. And for the playoffs? - they've already got one - Chris Narveson. Almost every team's 5th starter goes to the bullpen in the playoffs. Even with fewer days off in the playoff schedule this year, it's highly unlikely that the Brewers would consider Narveson in a starting role when they could pitch Grienke, Gallardo, Marcum or Wolf on normal rest. There - problem solved.

Subtraction by Addition

2011-08-20T08:10:00.001-05:00

Rumor is that the Philadelphia Phillies may be trying to swing a deal for Jim Thome. The current Twins slugger would serve in a pinching hitting role down the stretch and would DH in the World Series should the Phillies make it that far.

Umm... shouldn't Doug Melvin be all over that? ...trying to swing that same deal for us? Wouldn't it seem that the Brewers would match up much better in an NLCS against the Phillies if Jim Thome played for us rather than playing for them?

By any of the various calculations online, the Brewers chance of winning the NL Central are well over 90%. It's time to start looking ahead.

Making the Most of the Least

2011-08-17T22:51:00.002-05:00

On Twitter:

ESPNStatsInfo ESPN Stats & Info

#Elias tells us: The amazin Brewers get their fifth straight win when scoring 3 or fewer runs. They are the sixth team to do that since 1900

Turn 3

2011-08-16T06:25:00.000-05:00

Very nice graphic on JSOnline by Enrique Rodriguez on the Brewers triple play last night:

(I was going to get a rip in by saying that this was the hardest that anyone at the paper has worked this year on a Brewers feature. But I won't.)

Irrelevant Card

2011-08-14T05:57:00.000-05:00

The third person this week has pointed out to me that the Brewers are starting to catch the Braves in the Wild Card standings and that's significant because if the Cardinals get hot, the Brewers would have a good chance to make the playoffs anyway. I think it started with the TV guys and somehow caught on.

Well it's not significant at all. If the Brewers finish with a better record than the Braves, they will almost certainly win their division. If they finish with a worse record than the Cardinals, they will also almost certainly finish with a worse record than the Braves and be out of the playoffs. In other words, despite their current record and the fact that they are so close to the Braves in the standings, the Brewers chance of being the National League Wild Card is almost zero.

Idiot!

2011-08-10T20:21:00.000-05:00

I think the people who are calling Chris Narveson an idiot for cutting his finger are themselves idiots. Chris Narveson is an adult. He was using a useful tool designed for adults. That tool broke and unfortunately he cut himself. It sucks, but it was an accident. That's it.

What other things is Chris Narveson not supposed to use? Steak knives? Razors? A lawnmower? Is he supposed to not drive a car? Ride a bike? Walk across the street? We need to grow up and quit coddling people. If I'm going to call out players for bad things they do off the field, I'm not going to start with the guy who's trying to fix his ball glove with a pair of scissors.

Save a Closer

2011-07-29T06:21:00.001-05:00

A discussion with myself...

ME: Don't you think Ron Roenicke ought to avoid using Francisco Rodriguez in the 8th inning EVERY TIME there is a save situation? He and Axford have now pitched three consecutive days. If you he used someone else in the 8th inning one of those games, he'd have a fresh closer for today.

ME: Yeah, but if he had used someone other than K-Rod in the 8th, they might have lost one of those games. After all, isn't that why we got K-Rod - because we didn't have a reliable 8th inning setup guy who could get the games to Ax? It's better to use a guy today when you ARE ahead, to maximize your chances of winning, than save him for tomorrow when you MIGHT be ahead, because you might not need him then.

ME: Yeah, I guess you're right.

ME: I usually am.

Plush BABIP

2011-07-25T19:15:00.000-05:00

(Yes, I'm still around. Just been very, very busy with other stuff.)

Nyjer Morgan's BABIP (batting average on balls in play) right now is .391. No other Major Leaguer with over 200 plate appearances has a higher BABIP.

Not Back to Back

2011-06-13T17:47:00.003-05:00

Did you know that the Brewers have not lost back-to-back ballgames since snapping their 7-game losing streak on May 6th? That's a string of 35 consecutive games in which they have not had a 2-game losing streak.

Do you also know that this is their longest such streak EVER? In the team's entire history.

The previous longest streak was a 31-game streak starting with a win on April 8, 2007 and ending with a win on May 12.

Wow.

Update 6/15: Man, do I feel link a jinx.

One Less Fielder

2011-06-12T17:12:00.001-05:00

According to "sources", Major League Baseball is considering realignment, moving one team from the National League to the American League to balance the two leagues at 15 teams each. I have written previously that I think this is a good idea and much needed to right an inequity in that the teams in a 4-team division have an easier time making the playoffs than team in a 6-team division. The inequity would be exagerated if a second wild card team was added.

The Houston Astros and Florida Marlins are mentioned as teams that could potentially move. However many commenters are suggesting that the Brewers move back to the American League - from whereat they originally came. Personally, I would welcome that move.

But the point I want to raise is this: Suppose this idea gets some legs and Major League Baseball does decide to move an NL team to the AL. And suppose the Brewers are chosen as the team to move. Doesn't that shed an entirely different light on the attempt to resign Prince Fielder? An American League Brewers team, needing a designated hitter, would have a much greater use for a slugger like Fielder than a National League team would. In fact, having Fielder on the roster makes the Brewers perhaps better suited to the American League. If the Brewers lose Fielder to an AL team through free agency, they are hurt more if they move than if they stay in the NL.

The Brewers would benefit from the realignment regardless because they will have one fewer teams in their division. But should they not only support the move, but lobby to be the team that goes? Maybe say to Major League Baseball in so many words, "Look, if we can sign Prince, we'll volunteer to move."

S'rt ShO

2011-06-11T06:22:00.000-05:00

David Pinto calls it a short shutout when a pitcher throws 6 or more innings while allowing no runs. Chris Narveson threw his 4th short shutout of the season last night tying him with Clayton Kershaw for the Major League lead.

There are 21 Major League pitchers who currently have three short shutouts. Among them are Shawn Marcum and Yovanni Gallardo. Randy Wolf has thrown two short shutouts, bringing the team total 12 so far this season. The Brewers had only 11 short shutouts ALL of last season.

Time Off

2011-04-29T14:26:00.000-05:00

Oakland A's catcher Kurt Suzuki and Arizona Diamondback shortstop Ian Desmond each spent time on the MLB Paternity Leave List this week. Last year's All-Star break, I figure.

Happening Again

2011-04-28T20:16:00.000-05:00

Heading into Thursday, the NL Central standings if you flip the result of all of the Brewers-Reds games...

Team	W	L	Pct	GB
Milwaukee	16	8	0.667	--
St. Louis	13	11	0.542	3
Pittsburgh	11	14	0.440	5-1/2
Chicago	10	13	0.435	5-1/2
Houston	9	15	0.375	7
Cincinnati	9	16	0.360	7-1/2

In The Red

2011-04-26T05:27:00.000-05:00

The Brewers are 11-7 when they don't play the Cincinnati Reds; a pace that would win 99 games over a full season. The Reds are 8-11 when they don't play the Brewers; a pace that would win only 68 games over a full season. Yet this morning, the Brewers trail the Reds by 1/2 game in the standings. So far, the only thing separating the Brewers from looking like a championship caliber club and the Reds looking like an also-ran are the games they've played against each other. If the Brewers can't solve this puzzle, in the end neither team will be that.

Beating a Red Horse

2011-04-24T17:45:00.000-05:00

I've written about this over and over and over, but it still needs to be said. The Brewers will not make the playoffs this year if they can not figure out a way to beat the Cincinnati Reds. They were 3-11 last year; 0-3 this year. Their failure to beat the Reds in the opening series is the reason they are not in first place right now. The only reason.

Eras

2011-04-22T07:03:00.002-05:00

Just a quick thought on Ryan Braun's contract extension. There are some decisions that a team makes that directly affect the quality of the team on the field and other decisions that affect the quality of the team as a business entity. Trading for Zack Grienke is an example the former. The building of Miller Park is an example of the later. Extending Ryan Braun's contract through most of the rest of his career is much more an example of the later.

There have been basically three 'eras' in Milwaukee Brewers history: the pre-Robin Yount era, the Robin Yount era, and the post-Robin Yount era. Now, there may be a fourth. It's hard to argue with that line of thinking.

Wilder Card

2011-04-21T22:48:00.006-05:00

There's talk again about adding a second wild-card team to the playoffs. There is a part of this that I love. It gives meaning to winning the division again. If you do you get a first round bye and a few days off. That's huge. Last year it was a foregone conclusion for weeks that the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays were both going to make the playoffs. Despite that they battled down to the last day of the season, it really didn't matter which team won the division because the other was going to win the wild card. Under an expanded playoff structure it clearly would have mattered.

But there a part I don't like. The part that exaggerates an injustice in how baseball teams are currently aligned.

There are six teams in the NL Central. If all things are random, each team in the division has a 16.7% chance of winning each year. By contrast, the AL West has only four teams. Each of those teams has a 25% chance of winning. To put it another way, a team in the AL West is half again as likely to win their division as a team in the NL Central.

Now add the current one wild card team. A team that doesn't win its division in the National League has a 7.7% chance (1 in 13) of winning the wild card spot. Over in the AL, the non-division winners have a 9.1% chance of winning the wild card (1 in 11). Again, more teams in the NL; less chance of making the post-season.

Now add the two together. All else being equal, a team in the AL West has a 34.1% chance of making the playoffs, while a team in the NL Central has only a 24.4% chance. That's quite a gap - almost ten percentage points. A team in the AL West will make the playoffs a little more than once every three years while a team in the NL Central will make it less than one in four. One extra trip to the playoffs every ten years for an AL West team just because they have only four teams in the division.

Now add another wild card team. The chances of winning the division remain the same, but the chance of winning the wild card in the AL increase to 18.2% while the chances in the NL increase to only 15.4%. Add the two together again and an AL West team now has a 43.2% chance of making the playoffs while an NL Central team has only a 32.1% chance. The gap has widened to over 11%.

I think Major League baseball ought to address this inequity. A simple solution would be to move one team from the National League to the American League and have five teams in each division. Of course there would then need to be at least one interleague series going on at all times, but I think that's OK. Interleague play has been around long enough that we don't have to continue to treat it like the spectacle that we still do. We could just incorporate it into the regular schedule - I'm sure that could be worked out. A side benefit is that you could split up the NY-NY, CHI-CHI, and LA-LA series so they're not all happening on the same weekend. Better for TV.

What team would I move to the American League? Why, the one that's been there before of course.

Blue for Brew

2011-04-21T16:14:00.000-05:00

Mark Attanasio's named has been mentioned as a possible new owner for the Los Angeles Dodgers. On the same day, the Brewers extend Ryan Braun's contract until 2020. Like Attanasio, Braun also lives in LA. You don't suppose there's a movement afoot to move the Brewers to Los Angeles and the Dodgers to Milwaukee? The Dodgers would still need a new owner of course - like perhaps the Selig's?

I don't know anything - I'm just sayin'.

Online

2011-04-20T21:05:00.000-05:00

A few tidbits from my browsings today...

Buster Olney on Twitter drops Mark Attanasio's name as a possible owner for the Dodgers. Say it ain't so.

Bleacher Report names Ben Oglivie as the second most underrated player in baseball ever. Sal Bando, Don Money, and Larry Hisle also make the top 50.

John Dewan's Stat of the Week says the Brewers are tied with the Baltimore Orioles as the fifth best defensive team in baseball so far this year. Either the new metrics for evaluating fielding are fatally flawed - or I've been watching a different team's games.

So now the Cubs may have thrown a World Series too? Is there any part of the world more corrupt than Chicago. And they just can't get ahead for it either.

Just Like Starting Over

2011-04-20T06:47:00.000-05:00

Five of the six teams in the NL Central are within one game of .500 right now. The season has been shortened to 145 games.

Un-Grand Theft

2011-04-19T07:22:00.000-05:00

Reds pitcher Mike Leake was arrested for stealing $59.88 worth of shirts from a Macy's store. What I find most incredible about that story is the word "shirts". With an 's'. Plural. I'm amazed that someone could find two or more shirts in a Macy's store that when added together cost only $59.88.

Narvelous

2011-04-10T07:21:00.000-05:00

At the moment, Chris Narveson has the most innings pitched in the Majors among pitchers who have yet to allow an earned run. He's 0 for 13 IP. This is the longest streak of consecutive scoreless innings in his career.

Yovani Gallardo enters today's game with a string of 11 consecutive scoreless innings.

The Start of Something...

2011-04-03T15:36:00.003-05:00

The Brewers have started the season 0-3 four other times in their history. Here are their full-season Win-Loss records in those seasons:

Season	Final W-L Record
1970	65-97
1984	67-94
2001	68-94
2003	68-94

Does this mean that the Brewers are going to lose 94 games this year? No. But it doesn't mean that they're not. The Brewers magic number to beat the Reds remains at 163. The Reds have managed to trim 6 games off of theirs. The season has gotten quite a bit more difficult than it was three days ago.

The Pennant Race Starts Today

2011-03-31T06:39:00.007-05:00

{You're nuts, Scott. It's Opening Day. The season is 162 games long. This is only one game.}

I pointed this out last season, but since I've been away for a while I'll open this season with it. The Brewers finished 2010 with a record of 77-85 and were 14 games behind the Cincinnati Reds. Their record against the Reds last year was 3-11. If you flip those games against the Reds around - make every loss a win and every win a loss, leaving everything else the same - the Brewers would have finished the season only one game behind the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central. The Reds would have finished two games back.

It is imperative to win games against your division rivals. Ron Roenicke should manage these first three games like they are playoff games. It's extremely unfortunate that Zack Grienke won't be pitching in one of them and that two other starters are hurt. But today is the real deal. The one game you win today could be the one game you finish ahead of the Reds in September.

Yawn... Stretch...

2011-03-30T19:12:00.001-05:00

Is winter over? Is it baseball season?

One more day?

OK.

{snooze button}

BEST INTEREST

2011-01-23T21:07:00.001-06:00

Nobody seems to be all that interested in baseball right now, do they?

By the time Monday after the Super Bowl rolls around it will be only nine more days until pitchers and catchers report. How's that for making winter go by quick?

WALK OF SHAME

2011-01-07T19:25:00.000-06:00

For the third time in the last four years and fourth of the last six, the Brewers Walk of Fame voting committee failed to select a single person for induction. This is a joke and an embarrassment. The Walk of Fame, which could be a vibrant, interesting, and proud part of the Miller Park experience is becoming irrelevant.

I would change the rules so that the top vote getter gets in. Every year. No matter what percentage of the votes he gets. That would allow for an annual, highly public ceremony on a warm summer night, honoring a player from Milwaukee's rich baseball history. Isn't that what this is about anyway? Time to wake up Milwaukee Brewers.

ALL IN

2010-12-19T19:36:00.001-06:00

My first reaction was that the Brewers gave away the farm to get Grienke. Well -- they almost literally did.

I still believe that Alcides Escobar will turn into an All-Star caliber player.

What's the over/under on how many games the Brewers win in 2015? Maybe 70?

I calculated the average WAR over past two seasons for the projected starters for the Cardinals, Brewers and Reds next season.

	ST. LOUIS		MILWAUKEE		CINCINNATI
C	Molina	3.0	Lucroy	0.0	Hernandez	1.3
1B	Pujols	8.2	Fielder	5.1	Votto	5.4
2B	Shumaker	1.0	Weeks	2.5	Phillips	2.2
SS	Theriot	0.1	Betancourt	0.0	Janish	0.7
3B	Green	0.0	McGehee	2.6	Rolen	4.4
LF	Holliday	5.3	Braun	5.5	Gomes	0.1
CF	Rasmus	2.9	Gomez	0.5	Stubbs	2.9
RF	Berkman	2.3	Hart	2.5	Bruce	2.6
BEN	Jay	0.4	Counsell	1.4	Hanigan	1.8
SP1	Carpenter	4.5	Grienke	5.7	Volquez	0.4
SP2	Wainwright	6.3	Gallardo	2.9	Arroyo	2.3
SP3	Garcia	1.4	Marcum	2.6	Cueto	1.3
SP4	Westbook	0.0	Wolf	2.6	Wood	1.2
CL	Franklin	1.7	Axford	1.0	Cordero	1.1
		36.8		34.8		27.4

This trade unquestionably makes the Brewers a contender in the NL Central. That's not just beat writer talk. It doesn't make them the favorite, but it does put them right there.

OVERNIGHT PONDERINGS...

I wonder if any of the excitement expressed by players like Ryan Braun and Corey Hart has anything to do with the departure of Escobar. I'm not saying he was disliked. I'm just pointing out that I haven't heard anyone in the Brewers organization say that they are sorry to be losing him or what a great teammate he was, like you often hear when a player is traded away.

When Ron Roenicke was hired we heard about what a great communicator he is with players. I wonder if this, or any experience he might have had in the past with other players with anxiety issues such as Grienke's, helped set Doug Melvin's mind at ease about making the trade. I would think that Grienke would find it much more comfortable playing for someone like Roenicke than someone aloof like Ken Macha.

IN PASSING...

2010-12-16T18:10:00.000-06:00

It's been a very rough year in terms of baseball deaths...

Rory Marcus.

Willie Davis.

Gil McDougald.

Jose Lima.

Bobby Bragan.

Wayne Twitchell.

Dave Niehaus.

Ralph Houk.

Mike Cuellar.

Ernie Harwell.

Cal McLish.

Bobby Thompson.

Ed Kirkpatrick.

Bob Sheppard.

Jim Bibby.

Keli McGregor.

Robin Roberts.

Bob Feller.

Ron Santo.

Sparky Anderson.

George Steinbrenner.

Quite a list. May they all rest in peace.

MINOR VALUE

2010-12-14T20:55:00.004-06:00

In his great blog MiLB Prospects, Matt Garrioch ranks the Top 2000 Minor League baseball players for 2011. Yankees catcher Jesus Montero heads the list at #1. Outfielder Mike Trout of the Angels is second. Bryce Harper of the Nationals is third, and it goes from there.

At #9 - there's Brett Lawrie; the chip the Brewers cashed in for Shaun Marcum. Any other Brewers in the top 10? Hee, hee, hee - silly me. How about in the top 20? Let's see... nope. In the top 50? Looking, looking... no again. How about the top 75? Ummm... nope. Top 100??? No again. The top ranked Brewers minor league player is Jake Odorizzi who is ranked 124th among all minor league players in professional baseball. Wow. Given that there are 30 teams, you would expect on average that each team would have four or so players in the top 120. The Brewers have none.

The top ten minor leaguers in the Brewers organization, per Garrioch's rakings are:

Rank	Name	POS
124	Jake Odorizzi	P
135	Scooter Gennett	SS
226	Caleb Gindl	OF
296	Kentrail Davis	OF
323	Cameron Garfield	C
372	Jeremy Jeffress	P
394	Hunter Morris	1B
403	Cutter Dykstra	OF
448	Tyler Thornburg	P
456	James Nelson	P

I created a graduated scale formula to assign a value to each player based only on his ranking. The top player on the list was assigned a value of 50 points. The 4th ranked player is valued at 40 points. The 19th best player is at 30 points. The 116th player gets 20 points, the 907th player gets 10 points, and so on down to the 2,000th player who gets about 6 points. The values are obviously designed to drop off more rapidly at the top of the list than at the bottom - just like they would if you assigned points subjectively.

Using this formula, I calculated the total "value" of all of the minor league players in each organization. The top 5 are:

Team	Value
New York Yankees	1001
Boston Red Sox	963
Cleveland Indians	907
Tampa Bay Rays	878
Seattle Mariners	852

I guess there's more to the success of the Yankees and Red Sox than just money.

...and the bottom five:

Team	Value
LA Dodgers	592
Florida Marlins	551
Milwaukee Brewers	545
Detroit Tigers	536
Chicago White Sox	528

How the mighty have fallen. The Brewers minor league system, which but a few years ago was the envy of all of baseball has fallen nearly to the bottom of all Major League teams. Only the Tigers and White Sox have more poorly stocked minor league systems.

And isn't it interesting to see Seattle in the top five? Don't we know their GM somehow?

HOME COOKING

2010-12-07T06:41:00.007-06:00

Yesterday in my post about the Shaun Marcum trade, I commented how I felt that hometown players tend to be overrated and thus, to the Brewers benefit, the Toronto Blue Jays over spent for Brett Lawrie. In the comments, Kyle offered a very compelling rebuttal:

"Being a MN resident Brewer fan I disagree. The money and fandom brought in by Joe Mauer is probably well calculated by the team. They get way more tickets and merchandise with Mauer here. That Mauer value is useless to all other teams besides the Twins but if I own Joe Mauer and am not the Twins I am going to attempt to extract that value when trading him and if I am the Twins I will put it in the equation."

That's keen analysis. Perhaps there is some collateral benefit of having home town players on your team. I'm guessing that the Brewers sold more Craig Counsell t-shirts than Joe Inglett t-shirts last year. Did they sell any more tickets? Perhaps to his friends. But still, I can buy into what Kyle is saying.

So then, how large must this collateral benefit be in order to offset - if I'm right - the lesser quality of play that a team is willing to accept from a home town player, compared to a comparable replacement player that they could instead have? In order to answer that, I must know the difference in the quality of play.

I created a database of every U.S. born hitter who played in the Major Leagues from 1961 to present - the "expansion era". The list includes over 43,000 seasons and over 2 million games played. Then I flagged each season as to whether the player was playing for a team in the same state in which he was born. Here are the compiled results:

	BA	SLG	OBP	OPS	BB/K
Playing at home	0.262	0.403	0.331	0.733	0.62
Playing away	0.258	0.396	0.324	0.719	0.57

I guess I was wrong. Players who play for teams in their home state actually play a bit better than those playing away from home. The differences are not large, but with as large a sample size as we have, they are real. I'm surprised by that.

In my tally, 11% of the games played were by home-state players. That strikes me as much higher than what you would expect if players were distributed randomly. There is an apparent concerted effort by teams to acquire locally born players. I guess we already knew that.

There might be a bit of selection bias in the data. For example, Cal Ripken played his entire career in his home state. All of his stats are included in the "Playing at home" row. Barry Bonds was born in California. But those two players combined make up less than 3% of that whole row. There are some good players on the other side too. I don't think the differences would be enough to sway the findings.

I don't know if the same holds true for pitchers. If I get curious enough, I'll figure it out.

MARCUM DOWN AS AN ACE

2010-12-05T21:59:00.005-06:00

2010	W	L	ERA	IP	H	HR	BB	K	WAR
Gallardo	14	7	3.84	185	178	12	75	200	2.1
Marcum	13	8	3.64	195	181	24	43	165	3.8

Dare I say that Shawn Marcum is every bit as good as Yovani Gallardo? Perhaps a bit better. Would you trade away Brett Lawrie to get Yovani Gallardo? Or put it another way - which of the two would you rather loose? Case closed. This is a solid trade.

Of course Gallardo has a bigger up side in that he is four years younger.

When the Brewers sign Craig Counsell again and everyone drools all over themselves, I'm going to write a blog post about how I think teams grossly overrate locally born players - as if playing close to where you were born somehow makes you magically better. I think the Blue Jays fell into this trap and overpaid for Lawrie.

Over his career, despite being right handed, Marcum has pitched much better against lefties than against righties.

Marcum has pitched over 110 pitches in a game only four times in his career (once each in '06, '07, '08 and '10). In the next game after his 110+ pitch outings his stats were:

IP	Hits	ER
3.1	5	3
3.1	9	8
1	2	2
4	10	7

That's and ERA of 15.43. I hope someone tells Ron Roenicke this. Marcum's ability to pitch deep into ballgames will be the same as his ability to record a lot of outs with 100 pitches.

If you look for a down side to Marcum, you will notice that his BAbip's over his last three seasons have been .269, .246, and .280 - well below the norm of .300 and well below Gallardo's .331 last season. Regression to the mean and a much below average Brewers' defense will be working against him. But then we don't have the Yankees and Red Sox in our division either. Marcum is 6-1 with a 3.34 ERA in 10 starts against the National League in his career.

THE RECORD STUCK. THE RECORD STUCK...

2010-11-30T05:54:00.001-06:00

Why do radio stations that play Chirstmas music insist on playing the same songs by the same artists, over and over and over and over, year after year after year? Hasn't everyone heard Feliz Navidad about 500 times in their lives already?

Scrooge out.

WI NOT-FI?

2010-11-10T13:49:00.001-06:00

Attention Rick Schlesinger and Mark Attnasio:

Follow the Minnesota Twins lead. Add free Wi-Fi to all of Miller Park. For the fans who wish to use a handheld device to keep track of other games, look up a player's stats, check their bank accounts so they can buy a few extra souvenirs - maybe even tickets to a future game, figure out where to go after the game, e-mail their friends to let them know where they'll be, post to their facebook page about the game, blog, tweet... you name it. There are few things that would enhance the fan experience more.

SILENT-LEE

2010-11-10T04:24:00.000-06:00

A report in the New York Daily News on Monday mentions the Brewers as a possible suitor for Cliff Lee. I'm not sure why the local media isn't picking up on this (well, actually I do know why...) or why there hasn't been more talk of it. With Jeff Suppan and Bill Hall's salaries finally clearing the books it seems that the Brewers would be in a position financially to at least throw their hat in the ring.

I know - Jeff Suppan, Randy Wolf, Doug Davis... Yes, free agent pitchers are risky and a lot of the big signings don't work out. But some of them do. No team needs a top caliber starter right now more than the Brewers. Signing Cliff Lee would immediately make them a top contender in the NL Central. Do they want to win or are they afraid to lose?

CHANGING TIME

2010-11-08T07:10:00.000-06:00

This turning back of the clocks sucks. For the next three months we all get to drive home from work in the dark. And for what? So it can get light out at 6:00 in the morning? Who cares?

AGE DIFFERENCE

2010-11-01T16:31:00.003-05:00

Steve Garczynski on Bernie's Crew Blog:

In-Between Hops likes the choice of Bobby Valentine since he’s the Anti-Macha. A lot was made this year that 60-year-old Ken Macha was too slow and conservative for this team, so it makes sense to replace the old man with the energetic 60-year-old Valentine.

I would point out to Mr. Garczynski that Chuck Norris and Congressman Barney Frank are also the same age. Similar personalities too. Probably wouldn't even be that much difference in how they would run a baseball team.

BE MINE VALENTINE

2010-10-31T21:08:00.005-05:00

Tom Haudricourt has been blogging for four straight days that the Brewers haven't made a decision yet in their search for a new manager. It's coming across as bitterness for being scooped. You see, Tom, first you make a decision, then you negotiate, and if that works out you make an announcement - but not during the World Series lest you suffer the wrath of Bud.

"I just made contact with Valentine and he said he had not heard from the Brewers" - TH

You think? Did you ever hear of agents?

The Brewers know who they want. They obviously aren't saying just yet in case the negotiations don't work out. All indications are the Bobby Valentine is who they want. I think that would be a very good choice. He is the anti-Ken Macha. I liked Ken Macha, but if your going to fire your manager it seems to make most sense to bring in someone totally different.

NFL OVERTIME RULE

2010-10-18T19:03:00.000-05:00

This has nothing to do with baseball. And I'll get back to writing about baseball soon - promise.

I have been telling people for years that the NFL should modify their overtime rules so that the team scoring last in regulation play automatically kicks off in overtime. They can keep it sudden death like it is now. Just make that one simple change and take the randomness out of it.

In yesterday's Packers-Dolphins game, the Packers scored last in regulation. They did in fact have to kick off in overtime like they would have under this new rule. Yet the game was a perfect example of how well this new rule could work.

At the end of the game with under 20 seconds left on the clock, the Packers faced a 4th and goal from the 2-yard line. They came to the line obviously intending to run a pass play - there was no one but Aaron Rodgers in the backfield. Except for a total and inexplicable collapse of the Dolphins defense, they probably would have run a pass play. But because of an astute observation by Daryn Colledge who had no defender for three yards in front of him, Rodgers was able to follow him into the end zone untouched.

OK, so now the Packers are down by one. If they kick the extra point, they have to a) make it, b) kick off to the Dolphins and give them at least one more play from scrimmage, and c) kick off to them in overtime. But, if they go for a 2-point conversion and make it, they win the game. What would you do? Of course you'd run the play! They already had it called. They could have run the same play they were going to run anyway and try to win right then and there. No overtime. Game over. Now that would have been exciting.

100 RBI TRIFECTA

2010-10-01T05:52:00.001-05:00

Casey McGehee and Corey Hart each collected their 100th RBI on the season last night giving the Brewers three players who have reached that total. This is the third time the the Brewers have had 3-100 RBI players on the team. The first was in 1979 when Gorman Thomas, Cecil Cooper and Sixto Lezcano accomplished the feat. The last before this year was of course 1982 when four players topped the 100 RBI mark (Cooper, Yount, Thomas and Oglivie).

In the context of all of baseball, having three or more 100 RBI guys is not particularly uncommon. It's happened 131 times since 1901 - a little more than once per season. Four 100 RBI hitters has been accomplished 25 times. The 1936 New York Yankees had 5-100 RBI hitters - the current Major League record.

The 1997 Cleveland Indians and 2003 Boston Red Sox each had 3-100 RBI guys on the team yet the team leader had only 105. That is the record for fewest RBIs by the team leader on a teams with three or more 100 RBI hitters. Right now, the Brewers leader is Ryan Braun with 103. They still have a chance at that record.

Noticeably absent from the Brewers list is Prince Fielder who led all of Major League baseball with 141 RBI last season.

SEEING RED

2010-09-22T22:38:00.002-05:00

The Brewers defeated the Cincinnati Reds for only the second time this season against nine losses.

All else being the same, if the Brewers had gone 9-2 against the Reds thus far instead of 2-9, the NL Central standings would look like this right now:

	W	L	PCT	GB
Cincinnati	79	74	0.516	--
Milwaukee	77	74	0.510	1
St. Louis	77	74	0.510	1
Houston	73	79	0.480	5-1/2
Chicago	69	82	0.457	9
Pittsburgh	53	98	0.351	25

It is critically important that you beat the teams you are contending with in your division. They are not 'just like any other game'. They are the games that will make or break your season.

P FOR P?

2010-09-10T18:22:00.001-05:00

Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports quotes Albert Pujols as saying of Manager Tony LaRussa, whose contact expires after this season:

“I hope he can continue to be my manager for the rest of my career,” Pujols said. “But that’s not my job, and I don’t make those decisions. I think this city should be appreciative of the things he has accomplished in his 15 years as manager in this organization. Hopefully, he’ll be here next year and for the rest of my career.”

Prince Fielder for Albert Pujols???

Tony LaRussa as the new Brewers manager???

Hmmmm...

Cardinals get four years younger at 1B without a huge step down in production. They appease Colby Rasmus; one of their bright young stars. They probably get an extra player or two in the deal such as Manny Parra, Chris Narveson, Mat Gamel, or Carlos Gomez. The Brewers get - well... Tony LaRussa and Albert Pujols.

MUSING CAPPY

2010-09-09T06:27:00.001-05:00

I wonder if it's in the Brewers best interest to have Chris Capuano in the starting rotation right now. If my understanding is correct he's a free agent after this season. Are we wasting starts showcasing a pitcher that some other team is probably going to sign? Starts that we could be giving to a pitcher who we know will be here next year? There's no way he'll be rated as a Type A or Type B free agent (I wouldn't think) so we aren't going to get a thing for him if he leaves. With a couple more good starts he could get his ERA under 4.00 and as a veteran lefty, could potentially have some significant value on the open market.

On the other hand, by pitching him now, you can see what he's got. And if you like what you see and are willing to take a chance on him given his injury history, you have the opportunity to offer him a modestly priced contract for next season before he declares free agency. You'd present him with the 'bird in the hand' dilemma. Maybe he'd bite.

On the other hand, he might see that as a sign that he does indeed have some value and it might encourage him to test the open waters.

On the other hand, if he were looking for a team where he would have the greatest opportunity to sneak into a spot on next year's starting rotation, he really doesn't have to look too far.

If I were Ken Macha (and thank God I'm not), I don't know who I would be pitching right now if not Capuano; so I guess it's OK. But I've got to believe that the Brewers think he's got a future here beyond this year, because if they don't he shouldn't be in the rotation.

600

2010-09-07T22:34:00.002-05:00

Pete Rose had 4,256 hits in his career; more than any other player. There have been only 191 other players who have at least half as many hits as Pete Rose.

Barry Bonds is the Major League career leader in home runs with 762. There are only 59 other players in history who have hit half that many.

Cy Young has 511 career wins - a record that has stood for 100 years and may stand for 100 more. There are only 39 other pitchers in history who have half as many wins.

Trevor Hoffman is the Major League career leader in saves, earning his milestone 600th tonight. There are only 20 other pitchers in the history of the game who have half as many saves as Trevor Hoffman.

And perhaps only that many too who have half as much class.

CONSECUTIVE CASEY

2010-08-12T20:20:00.002-05:00

Casey McGehee has gotten a hit in each of his last nine at-bats. The Major League record for consecutive hits is 12 by Pinky Higgins of the Red Sox in 1938 and Walt Dropo of the Detroit Tigers in 1952.

Higgins streak included two walks and therefore spanned a total of 14 plate appearances. So if you were wondering if the streak can be snapped by a walk, it can not. Dropo's streak was 12 consecutive hits in 12 plate appearances.

McGehee is currently batting .285, which means there is slightly better than a 1 in 4 chance he will get a hit in his next at bat. And in his next. And in his next. The probability that McGehee will get a hit in each of his next three at bats is 1 in 43 (2.3%). The chance that he will get four more consecutive hits and set a new Major League record is 1 in 151 (0.66%).

Apart from today and yesterday, McGehee has had two other 4-hit games in his career. In each of those two instances, he had a 3-hit game either the game immediately prior or the game immediately after, meaning that this is the third time he has gotten 7 or more hits in consecutive games.

INJURY BUG

2010-08-11T15:16:00.001-05:00

The Brewers are third in the National League and sixth on all of the Majors in total number of player days on the DL. That surprised me. It hasn't seemed like this year has been that bad in that regard. Let's see... There was Doug Davis, Hawkins, Zaun, Coffey, Mat Gamel - does he count? Oh yeah, Suppan. Am I missing anyone? I guess in terms of impact on the team, my perception is that there have been a lot of other years where we have been hit harder than this.

ANY RELATION?

2010-08-08T09:18:00.000-05:00

OUT OF RIGHT FIELD

2010-08-03T06:36:00.003-05:00

(Took a brief hiatus, but I'm still here.)

The signing of Corey Hart took me by surprise, as it seems to have most everyone else. Just a few initial thoughts...

1. This does not necessarily mean that he won't get traded anyway. In fact, having him under a 3-year contract might improve his value in a trade.

2. But, by that logic, Ryan Braun would have even more trade value. He's younger and has a much more favorable contract. But Melvin wouldn't do that. Would he?

2. But, the Brewers now have this group of players signed and/or under their control at least through the 2012 season - the next two years.

SP	Yovani Gallardo
SP	Randy Wolf
SP	Manny Parra
SP	Chris Narveson
RP	Carlos Villanueva
RP	Zach Braddock
RP	Mitch Stetter
CL	John Axford
C	Jonathan Lucroy
C	George Kottaras
SS	Alcides Escobar
3B	Casey McGehee
IF	Mat Gamel
LF	Ryan Braun
CF	Carlos Gomez
RF	Corey Hart
OF	Joe Inglett
OF	Lorenzo Cain

That's a pretty impressive, solid nucleus of talent.

3. But, that same nucleus of talent, plus Prince Fielder and Rickie Weeks, is currently 9 games under .500.

4. But, that nucleus of talent is young. Save for Randy Wolf and Joe Inglett, they are all under 30 years old. They could get better.

5. But, seven of those players are past their 27th birthday and at the theoretical peak of their careers (Parra, Narveson, McGehee, Hart, Stetter, Axford, Kotarras). You can't expect that those players will get much better.

Five years ago, when the huge wave of talent came spilling out of the Brewers minor league system all at once, there was an enormous storm cloud on the horizon when all of these players would become free agents. Doug Melvin has dissipated that cloud little by little and now has only Rickie Weeks and Prince Fielder left to deal with. I at least give him credit for that.

THE PRICE OF PRINCE

2010-07-13T07:34:00.004-05:00

Let's do some Scott Boras math.

In this article yesterday by Tom Haudricourt, Scott Boras proclaimed that in negotiating a contract for Prince Fielder, he will be looking for one similar to that of Mark Teixeira. Teixeira's contract with the Yankees is $180 million for 8 years; an average of $22.5 million per year. Boras justifies this by claiming that having a player like Fielder can mean the difference between drawing 3 million in attendance and drawing 2.4 million.

Now, whether you buy in to Boras' claim is one thing. Obviously having Fielder would have some impact on attendance, but a difference of 600,000? Attendance will go up 25% just by having Prince Fielder on the team? But for now, let's say he's right and work with that number.

According to this chart the Brewers average ticket price in 2010 is $22.10. If you multiply that number by the 600,000 increase in attendance Boras claims the Brewers will have, you can project an additional revenue of $13.3 million per year by having Fielder. That's quite a bit short of the $22.5 million that Teixeira makes. More than $10 million short. So I guess you can scratch the Brewers off of the list of teams for whom it makes financial sense to sign Prince Fielder.

So who can? If it's true that Prince Fielder will generate 600,000 additional fans through the turnstiles for whichever team signs him, you would need an average ticket price of $37.50 to be able to justify paying him the $22.5 million per year that Boras will be asking for him. There are six teams with average ticket prices that high:

Chicago Cubs - $52.56
Boston Red Sox - $52.32
New York Yankees - $51.83
Chicago White Sox - $38.65
Philadelphia Phillies - $32.99
New York Mets - $32.32

The Cubs and Red Sox you can immediately scratch off the list of potential suitors. Their stadiums aren't big enough to fit the 7,400 additional fans (600,000 divided by 81) per game that Fielder would bring. They are already near capacity at every game.

The Yankees have already spent quite a bit at first base. There's DH I suppose so you can't rule that out. The Phillies already have a Prince Fielder named Ryan Howard. That would seem to leave the White Sox and the Mets.

And I'm sure this is exactly what Scott Boras is thinking. I'm sure he's already done this math. The 600,000 attendance figure that he threw out the other day was a carefully calculated number. He meant it for more than Tom Haudricourt to hear. Prince Fielder will be headed to New York or Chicago and Boras will convince him that he can't make nearly as much money anywhere else.

WHO'S ON FIRST?

2010-07-10T07:34:00.002-05:00

If the Brewers do wind up trading Prince Fielder, I wouldn't ignore the option of moving Ryan Braun to first base. He's played third base (albeit brutally) so he should still have some comfort level in the infield. It would allow the Brewers to improve their defense in the outfield as Braun is currently a liability there. We really don't have a quality first baseman waiting in the wings in the minors, so it solves that problem. Maybe Lorenzo Cain will be ready next season and we move Gomez over to left (if he ever proves himself worthy of a starting spot.) Or maybe we pick up another outfielder in a trade or through free agency. Or Maybe Rickie Weeks (another defensive liability) goes out to left and Brett Lawrie comes up. I don't know - just some thoughts. It makes you think about it a little differently though.

THIS IS WHAT YOU GET...

2010-07-08T18:18:00.005-05:00

... when you piss off the sleeping Giant.

Giants 6, Brewers 1
Giants 6, Brewers 1
Giants 15, Brewers 2
Giants 9, Brewers 3

The Giants had lost 8 of their last 9 heading in to this series and scored more than 3 runs in a game only once in that stretch.

UPDATE: Henry Schluman of the San Francisco Chronicle agrees.

THE BIG SCORE

2010-07-08T07:53:00.008-05:00

Renderings of the new scoreboard at Miller Park next year look amazing. The thing is going to be huge! Very impressive. Very nice addition to the fan experience.

Now, before a single keystroke is typed on the operator's computer, let me give you my wish list for the new scoreboard:

Show more replays. Seriously. I see no reason why every single play can't be quickly replayed on the scoreboard for the benefit of those who might have been looking away or had their view blocked by another fan or part of the stadium.
Periodically show the scores from all other games - maybe once an inning. The small scoreboard in left field can not be seen by many of the seats in Miller Park.
Did I mention showing more replays?
Show an in game box score in addition to just the batting order. Even putting something like "1-2, HR 2 RBI" after a player's name is better than nothing.
Fantasy stats. You know you want them. Every couple of innings post the day's fantasy leaders from around baseball. Everyone who's hit a home run, driven in more than one run, won a game, saved a game, struck out a bunch.
Tell us who's warming up in the bullpen - every time; not just now and then.
Plays of the day. I don't know if the Major League Baseball gestapo will allow this, but it would be neat to see highlights from other games before you get home and watch them on ESPN.
Show scores and highlights from the Brewers minor league affiliate teams. Let's promote some of the prospects before they get here.
And one final thing. How about more replays? There's no reason to have such a high quality, high definition scoreboard unless you are going to use it for actual video. Let's do this right. Replay every single play. And the good ones maybe 2-3 times.

[More... Somebody just emailed me and said that they should show the live TV broadcast continuously on the board. You can't do that. First of all it would be distracting for the hitters to have video playing in their peripheral view while they're batting, and second you would be allowing the hitter to see the catcher's signs.]

STONE GLOVES

2010-07-07T09:05:00.003-05:00

John Dewan's Stat of the Week this week ranks all Major League teams on defensive runs saved - a method which analyzes many aspects of defense and estimates how many runs above or below average the defense results in. As of the time of the posting (which I assume was before last night's debacle), the Brewers were ranked dead last in the ML at -28 runs.

If that estimate is accurate, the Brewers are about 3 games worse in the standings right now than they would be if they had average Major League defense. Those three games are the difference between still having a glimmer of hope for the post-season and having no hope at all.

Every one of the nine field positions has a negative score for the Brewers in Dewan's system. They are the only team for which that is true. Dewan singles out Ryan Braun and Rickie Weeks as the two players contributing most to the low score.

ERRATUM: The Brewers are actually +4 in center field, so they're not negative at every position. My bad. Still, that's interesting because center field is the only position where they don't have a regular starter. It's been mostly Jim Edmonds and Carlos Gomez, but Jody Gerut also has five starts in center and Adam Stern one. The longest stretch of games with the same starting center fielder has been only 10 by Gomez during the time Edmonds was on the DL.

TRADE ME NOW OR TRADE ME LATER

2010-07-06T22:24:00.005-05:00

I'd like to challenge the notion that it's better to trade a position player in the off-season than now. The logic, according to Doug Melvin, is that because of the player movement created in the off-season by free agency, there are more teams shopping for a particular position then than there are during the season.

What that logic ignores is that there are 3-4 teams in the pennant race right now who might be willing to overpay for a particular position player, a first baseman maybe, who wouldn't be willing to give up as much during the off-season. If, for example, you had a first baseman available right now, you might be able to take advantage of some other team's desperation and get more for him now than you would if you waited.

Plus, you are only trading him to one team - not all of the other 29. The average offer you get in the off-season may be better than the average offer you get now, but the best offer now will probably be better than the best offer in the off-season. The best offer is the only one that matters.

Then there's the PR aspect. What would people think if you traded your slugging first baseman this off-season for a bunch of prospects who aren't going to play until 2012? How is that going to sell tickets next year? You couldn't do it. So you'd be forced to acquire in the trade some established Major Leaguers with far lower ceilings than the prospects.

I believe that if you have a guy like - alright, Prince Fielder - it's better to trade him now than to wait. I don't believe you can get more for him in the off-season. And just because people like Doug Melvin say you can doesn't mean you have to accept it as truth.

[Now, if you want to believe that Doug Melvin is just saying that to posture and doesn't really believe it himself, I think that would be OK. Personally, I only believe half of what Doug Melvin says. I just don't know which half. I think that's what makes him an outstanding GM. I actually trust that he'll handle this whole situation rather well.]

STANDINGS MATH

2010-07-06T07:11:00.003-05:00

When I was growing up, I always considered being 10 games out of first place a point of no return. Hit ten back and you're done. No more hope of winning your division. (That's what you had to do to make the post-season back then.)

The Brewers find themselves 10-1/2 games out of first place this morning. That's not quite the low point of the season, but it's very close. They were 11 games back on June 5th, but it means that in the last month they haven't made up any ground.

The Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals right now are on pace to win 93 and 89 games respectively. If that continues, the Brewers would probably need to win somewhere around 91 games in order to catch them and make the playoffs (figuring that there are still 12 games left against the Reds and if you got hot you're likely to knock them back a few.) That means they would need to go 54-25 the rest of the way. A .684 W/L percentage. Better than two out of three. That's a winning pace that would win 111 games over a full season.

The Brewers have never in their history won 54 games in a 79 game stretch. The most is 52 in the second half of 1982. I don't think the 2010 Brewers are quite as good as the 1982 team. If anyone can theorize how they can all of the sudden can be, please let me know. Otherwise, sorry to say that the Brewers no longer have any reasonable chance of making the playoffs this year. I think the focus now needs to be how many games we can win next year.

PROTECTING THE VALUE OF AN ASSET

2010-06-30T06:57:00.000-05:00

The Brewers have placed pitcher Jeremey Jeffress on their 40-man roster, and in doing so (let's just be blatantly honest here) are protecting him from further tests for marijuana. Players on the 40-man roster enjoy protections from the player's union and are not subject to such tests. One more positive test would ban him from baseball for life.

There are two ways to look at this. One is to be disgusted because you think Jeremy Jeffress is a punk, pot-head kid who can't get his life straightened out and doesn't appreciate the tremendous gift God has given him. You think that he's going to be a poor influence and poor role model on the team and the Brewers shouldn't be protecting a deviant like this.

The other way to look at it is to recognize that Jeffress is a very talented pitcher, and despite his character flaw, is a high risk but potentially valuable asset to the Brewers organization. With one more positive test, he would no longer be an asset. You can do something to minimize the risk, thereby protecting the value of the asset. To me, this is the proper way to look at it and I think Doug Melvin is doing the right thing.

The goal isn't to build a team full of upstanding gentlemen who you would be happy to have your daughter date. It's to build a team full of players who can win. If you can get the first part with the second, then all the better, but sometimes you can't. You need to be able to deal with that. They don't give World Series trophies to the teams with the most model citizens.

TRADE BAIT

2010-06-29T07:20:00.000-05:00

The Brewers seems to have a fair bit of tradeable pitching right now. Macha obviously has no intention of using Trevor Hoffman in the closers role anymore. Don't you think a team like the Phillies or Dodgers would like to get him for the stretch run? Chris Capuano has no role on the team. Todd Coffey seems expendable. Even Doug Davis could be moved. I'm not saying they could package all of those guys for Cliff Lee, but perhaps they could clear the logjam and get a decent minor leaguer or two.

SHIPWRECK

2010-06-24T12:05:00.000-05:00

This has nothing to do with baseball. The steamship L.R. Doty, which sank 112 years ago in Lake Michigan was found last week by a team of divers. The man who spearheaded the search, Brendon Baillod is a lifelong historian of the Great Lakes. He is also my cousin. This has got to be as exciting for him as finding a Honus Wagner baseball card would be for me. There - I tied it in.

Congratulations Brendon!

OPPORTUNITY KNOCKED

2010-06-21T16:24:00.001-05:00

Remember a few months ago when a Prince Fielder for Kevin Youkilis and Clay Buchholz trade was being kicked around? Too bad that trigger was never pulled. You could make a case for trading Prince even-up for either one of them right now, let alone both.

AFRAID OF THE BIG BAD WOLF

2010-06-20T12:40:00.000-05:00

George Kottaras is the starting catcher today in Colorado. It's the 4th straight game start by Randy Wolf that Kottaras has caught. At the end of May, the plan was for Johnathan Lucroy to be Wolf's personal catcher, however when the two appeared unsynchronized, the switch was made to Kottaras.

I have never liked the practice of a pitcher having his own personal catcher and especially don't like this match up. Randy Wolf's ERA, albeit in only 12 innings, is 1.50 when Lucroy is his catcher. Lucroy has been hitting extremely well and Wolf hasn't been pitching particularly well so he could use all of the offensive help he can get.

Plus, Randy Wolf is going to be around another two years. From all appearances, Lucroy will be as well. The two have got to learn to work together at some point.

CHECKING SHEETS

2010-06-20T07:36:00.000-05:00

I took a look at Ben Sheet's game logs this morning. On the season, Sheets is 2-7 with a 4.95 ERA. However, except for a couple of blow-up games around the end of April in which he gave up 8 and 9 earned runs, he hasn't pitched all that poorly. Throw those two games out and his ERA is 3.49.

Here are the scores of the A's games that Sheets has pitched at the point when he was taken out of the game (A's score first, then their opponent, then Sheet's IP):

0-3, 5 IP
1-3, 6
5-0, 6
0-2, 6
4-8, 4
1-9, 3-1/3
3-2, 6-1/3
1-1, 6
3-4, 6-2/3
0-0, 6
3-3, 7
3-4, 6
0-4, 6
1-5, 6
1-4, 7

In 9 of Ben Sheet's 15 starts, the A's offense failed to score more than 1 run while Sheets was in the game.

In total, the A's are averaging 3.6 runs per game (whole game) on the days when Ben Sheets pitches, which is a full run per game under the league average and half a run worse than the A's themselves score when anybody else pitches.

Funny how those things follow people around.

TREVOR TIME

2010-06-19T08:58:00.002-05:00

The Brewers are dead last in the Major Leagues with only 10 saves on the season. I'm guessing that they are also last in save opportunities in that 12 of their 28 wins have been by a margin of 4 or more runs.

This is just a gut feel, but I think it's time that Ken Macha reinstate Trevor Hoffman as the team's closer. Get him to 600 saves so we can take down that onerous banner in Miller Park. That thing has been hanging there all year, not moving, and serves as a constant reminder of a failed season.

Hoffman has not allowed a run in his last four outings and except for the 3-run blow-up on June 1, has pitched rather well in his mop-up role. He has a 3.38 ERA since being demoted - even with the one bad game.

I have nothing against John Axford. He's pitched very well. I think he would equally effective in the 8th inning. But if Hoffman can regain some level of respectability in the closer's role, I think it would give the bullpen a lot more balance. And if he can regain his form of last season, it might be the spark the Brewers need to salvage something from this year. The Brewers have 16 home games before the All-Star break. Wouldn't it be a shot in the arm to see that the number 600 next to the scoreboard by then?

And if he fails... not much lost. But then it will be time to take the banner down and wish Trevor Hoffman the best of luck as he moves on with his life.

A SHEEP IN WOLF'S CLOTHING

2010-06-15T07:10:00.000-05:00

Last night Randy Wolf allowed fewer hits + walks than innings pitched for the first time this season - a stat I dubbed a "real quality start". He had 11 such outings last year.

Before the season started, I predicted that Wolf would have more wins and a lower ERA than John Lackey - (remember the talk about the Brewers signing him?) Despite how horrible Wolf has been this season, A couple more starts like this one and I'll still have a chance at being right.

	W-L	ERA	WHIP
Wolf	5-6	5.08	1.57
Lackey	7-3	4.54	1.56

Before you get too down on Randy Wolf, notice that we could have had about the same thing for three times as much money. The free agent pitching market is not a friendly place to shop.

BIG HOW MANY?

2010-06-15T06:47:00.000-05:00

So the college conference shuffle seems to have come to an end with four Big 12 schools announcing yesterday that they are staying put. So what did we get out of this? The Big Ten now has twelve schools, the Big 12 now has ten schools, and the BCS still exists.

Back to baseball...

CONSISTENCY

2010-06-14T21:35:00.000-05:00

Bill Schroeder opened tonight's broadcast by praising Ken Macha for using the same top five in the batting order the last three days, saying that using a set lineup was necessary to consistently score runs. Like many things Bill Schroeder says, this is crap.

In their history (through last year), there have been 1,792 games in which the Brewers used the same top five in the batting order as the game before. They averaged 4.41 runs in those games. In the 4,588 games when they used a different top five in the batting order, they scored 4.48 runs per game - slightly more.

I actually expected the data to show Schroeder to be right, but not because consistency has anything to do with it. With a good hitting team, I'd think you'd tend to stick with a set lineup more so than with a weaker hitting team.

So many people make a big deal about batting orders. They really don't matter much at all.

STARS NOT SHINING

2010-06-11T06:38:00.001-05:00

As maligned as the Brewers pitching has been lately, it's the offense that has been more the cause of the month long slump. The team scored almost two fewer runs per game in the last 30 games as they did in the first 30:

	R/G	RA/G
Games 1-30	5.78	5.30
Games 31-60	3.90	6.00

Would you have guessed that Corey Hart and Rickie Weeks would be #1 and #2 on the team in home runs at this point in the season?

Ryan Braun has not hit a home run for 15 games. Last year he had streaks of 19, 17, and 14 games without a home run and still hit 32 on the season, but he's already 5 behind last year's pace.

Prince Fielder didn't hit a home run until game #17 last year, yet this year he is already 6 home runs behind last year's pace.

As I've said before, it's the superstars on your team that determine success or failure. The Brewers two biggest superstars are not living up to that status right now, and that has as much to do with the 10-game under .500 record as the whole pitching staff put together.

RETHINKING THE DRAFT

2010-06-08T06:55:00.003-05:00

I did a quick analysis of the relative success rate of pitchers drafted out of high school vs. pitchers drafted out of college.

I looked at all pitchers drafted in the first round of the 2000-2004 drafts - long enough ago to tell who's going to make it and who's not, but not too long ago that scouting and evaluating methods would have changed much.

In those years, a total of 111 pitchers were drafted in the first round - 61 from a 4-year college, 45 from high school, and 5 from junior college. The five from junior college included only one player who has played in the Majors - Phil Dumatrait.

Of the pitchers drafted out of college, 39 (64%) have played in the Major Leagues. The top 10 ranked by WAR are:

Name	Pos	WAR
Jered Weaver	RHP	14.5
Justin Verlander	RHP	14.3
Mark Prior	RHP	13.7
Joe Blanton	RHP	11.7
Jeremy Guthrie	RHP	10.1
Huston Street	RHP	8.9
Noah Lowry	LHP	8.3
Joe Saunders	LHP	8.2
Chad Cordero	RHP	8.0
Paul Maholm	LHP	7.5

Of the players drafted out of high school, 45 (56%) have made the Majors. A slightly smaller percentage, but a much more impressive top 10:

Name	Pos	WAR
Zack Greinke	RHP	20.5
Scott Kazmir	LHP	18.1
Matt Cain	RHP	16.5
Adam Wainwright	RHP	14.3
Cole Hamels	LHP	12.5
John Danks	LHP	12.1
Chad Billingsley	RHP	9.7
Jeremy Bonderman	RHP	6.9
Gavin Floyd	RHP	5.6
Phil Hughes	RHP	2.2

Doug Melvin said in an interview yesterday:

“College pitchers can get there early but they can leave early, too."

I give him credit for having done his homework and for using the pick as it probably should be used - a long term investment with a high ceiling rather than a quick fix.

WITH THE 14th PICK...

2010-06-07T19:27:00.000-05:00

Dylan Covey. A high school pitcher that Baseball America had ranked 26th on the board. With three other quality college pitchers available - Alex Wimmers (Ohio State, ranked 17th), Brandon Workman (Texas, 20th), and Asher Wojciechowski (Citadel, 21st). Man, I can't wait until 2016.

THE CANDLE IS OUT

2010-06-07T15:37:00.002-05:00

The eulogy can be found here.

YOU'RE #2

2010-06-05T14:28:00.000-05:00

Here is a good question for the Brewers brass as they head into Tuesday's "powwow":

Who is the second best pitcher on the team?

Seriously. Who is? Starter or reliever - doesn't matter. It's a very tough question. And when you figure out who #2 is, ask yourself how many Major League pitchers, currently on other teams, you would take in a trade even up for him. 100? 150? 200? It's a pretty sad situation.

Going into today's game the Brewers are allowing 4.2 runs per game when Yovani Gallardo is the starting pitcher and 6.2 runs per game when anyone else is. I'm not sure what's going to come out of this meeting on Tuesday, because no matter how you line up a bunch or turds, you still end up with a pile of...

IMPERFECT GAME

2010-06-03T07:15:00.004-05:00

I am baffled by the people who do not want instant replay used in baseball. To say that you prefer to have the 'human element' kept in the game is to say that what happened to Armando Gallaraga last night was proper and just.

We don't accept human error in any other walk of life when there is a better, non-human process to fix it. If you deposit $1,000 in your bank account and the teller misses a zero and only credits you $100, you don't accept that and say, "Oh well, that's how life is - people make mistakes", when you have the canceled check in your hand as proof. You don't complain that it will slow down your day to go back and get the other $900.

Bud Selig should right this wrong, change the play to an out, and announce that baseball will take steps to prevent this sort of thing from happening again. If Major League Baseball overturns the call and credits Galarraga with his perfect game, ten years from now nobody is going to say that his perfect game was somehow tainted because an ump's call had to be overturned and that he really didn't throw a perfect game. If they let the call stand however, ten years from now people will still say that the ump blew it and Galarraga got screwed.

Actually, there is a way for Jim Joyce to save face on this. He should make a statement to Bud Selig that umpires need to be able to use all available technology to do their jobs in the most accurate manner possible. He should lead the charge - an umpire. What a strong statement that would be.

UPDATE 6/4: What a classy move last night by Armando Galarraga, Jim Joyce, the Tigers organization and Tigers' fans. Long after this season ends, more people will remember that Galarraga almost threw a perfect game than that Dallas Braden actually did.

I still think it rather spineless of Bud Selig to not set it straight. You can say it would have been a can of worms, but the last out of a perfect game is a far different worm than any of the others before it.

RE-CAP

2010-05-25T07:01:00.001-05:00

The Brewers must activate Chris Capuano by Saturday or risk loosing him to free agency. #nobrainer

This isn't some kid developing his skills. Capuano is an established Major League pitcher who got hurt. By all indications, he's well. Get him in there. They have never faced an easier, zero risk decision than this. He can replace anyone other than Gallardo on the pitching staff and he team is better for it.

DID JACK ZDURIENCIK CHECK OUT BEFORE HE LEFT?

2010-05-23T07:54:00.003-05:00

The Milwaukee Brewers are falling further and further out of contention and heading toward the possibility of a 90-loss season. This kind of ineptitude is no stranger to Brewers fans who endured four consecutive 90-loss seasons from 2001 to 2004 and 89, 87, and 88-loss seasons the three years before that.

What's troubling about this 90-loss season, if in fact the Brewers are that bad, is the wonder of exactly where this organization stands now. In the early 2000's, the team was horrible, but had the promise of a huge crop of minor league stars waiting in the wings. What helped us through then was knowing than Prince Fielder would soon be here. Ryan Braun would soon be here. J.J. Hardy. Yovani Gallardo. Rickey Weeks. Manny Parra. Tony Gwynn. These would be the saviors who would would deliver us from this misery and make the team good again.

Suppose that the Brewers do lose 90 games this year. Where is the hope now? Who is the next Prince Fielder? Who is the next Ryan Braun? Who is the next, hell, Mitch Stetter? They're not in Nashville. Not in Huntsville. Brevard County? Anywhere? The Brewers minor league system that was the pride of baseball not 5 years ago has fallen back to the pack and has no more than an average amount of Major League prospective talent. Are the Brewers on the cusp of another decade of doormat status?

Jack Zduriencik was of course the architect of Brewers once potent minor league system which won him the Major League Executive of the Year Award in 2007 for his efforts and ultimately landed him a coveted GM position in Seattle. Are we already seeing the effects of him being gone? Or did those "effects" begin while he was still here?

Only three players who Zduriencik drafted in the years 2006-2008, his last three with the team, have played in the Major Leagues. They are:

Matt LaPorta, drafted in 2007 - debuted with Cleveland in 2009.
Cole GIllespie, drafted in 2006 - debuted with Arizona in 2010.
Jonathan Lucroy, drafted in 2007 - debuted with the Brewers yesterday.

Of course your thinking that's unfair because it takes some time for players to develop in the minors and evaluating the 2006-2008 drafts in 2010 might be too soon. Perhaps. But let's move the whole window back three years for comparison. How many of the players that Zduriencik drafted in 2003-2005 had appeared in the Majors by 2007?

Ryan Braun, drafted in 2005 - debuted with the Brewers in 2007.
Yovani Gallardo, drafted in 2004 - debuted with the Brewers in 2007.
Rickey Weeks, drafted in 2003 - debuted with the Brewers in 2003; regular in 2005.
Tony Gwynn, Jr., drafted in 2003 - debuted with the Brewers in 2006.
Mitch Stetter, drafted in 2003 - debuted with the Brewers in 2007.
Ty Taubenheim, drafted in 2003 - debuted with Toronto in 2006.
Drew Anderson, drafted in 2003 - debuted with the Brewers in 2006.

By any means of measurement, that's a much more impressive list.

If you moved the window back one more year, the list would include Prince Fielder. One year earlier than that, it would include J.J. Hardy. The fact is that Jack Zduriencik had a very impressive run of draft picks, but that run seemed to end just about the time people started to notice.

Am I saying that Jack Zduriencik purposefully drafted lesser quality players here because he knew that he would soon be getting a better job somewhere else? No - I wouldn't say that. Did the notoriety bestowed upon him make him lose his edge? You'd like to think not. Did he just have a run of bad luck in the last three years? Might have. Did he just have a run of good luck in the years before that?

I don't know the answers to any of those questions. But I do know that I'm wondering that if Jack Zduriencik was so good, why did he leave us with what could be such a horrible mess? Did he check out before he left?

HOW BAD?

2010-05-19T07:40:00.001-05:00

The Brewers play game number 40 on the season tonight. They will finish the first quarter of the season with a record of either 15-25 or 16-24. There have been five other times in their history when they finished the first quarter with a record that bad or worse:

	First 40 G		Final
	W	L	W	L
2002	12	28	56	106
1970	13	27	65	97
2003	13	27	68	94
1972	15	25	65	91
2000	16	24	73	89

You need to seriously consider the possibility - perhaps likelihood - that this isn't going to turn around and that this is just a really, really bad team.

AZ-STAR GAME

2010-05-14T10:00:00.001-05:00

Selig ignoring call to move All-Star Game

This is why Bud Selig is Commissioner of baseball and Ozzie Guillen is not. Good call, Bud.

WORKING LIKE A BULL

2010-05-12T06:50:00.003-05:00

Al rambled about whether the Brewers' bullpen is being overworked. His perceptions are (as usual) mainly on the mark.

Through yesterday's games the Brewers starting pitchers are averaging 5.4 innings per outing. This ranks 25th in the Majors. By comparison, the Cardinals lead the Majors with 6.5 innings per start. That extra inning+ per game means keeping an extra guy fresh for tomorrow and over time that adds up.

Last year the Brewers also averaged 5.4 innings per start (5.37 to be precise) so nothing much has changed.

Interestingly though, of the five teams that rank below the Brewers:

Mets - 5.3 IP/start
Nationals - 5.3
Dodgers - 5.2
Tigers - 5.2
Pirates - 4.9

three having winning records, and as a group they are 4 games over .500.

However, the top of the chart is:

Cardinals - 6.5 IP/start
Rays - 6.4
Phillies - 6.3
Giants - 6.2
Twins - 6.2

so there is clearly a correlation between this stat and wins.

THE FINAL SCORE

2010-05-11T17:26:00.002-05:00

Per Adam McCalvy on Twitter:

"Brewers official scorer (and) longtime Arrowhead baseball coach Tim O'Driscoll announces retirement (health reasons)."

I wish Tim O'Driscoll all of the best as he tackles his health issues. All the same, I think this bodes well for the fielding percentage of Brewers' fielders.

UPDATE: Apparently it's still unclear as to whether O'Driscoll will relinquish his position with the Brewers. He is giving up his coaching position with Arrowhead though.

REHEAT THE SOUP?

2010-05-11T06:21:00.001-05:00

I think maybe the Brewers should consider giving Doug Davis' next start to - dare I say? - Jeff Suppan. Here are Soup's five relief appearances:

9 IP, 10 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 8 K

Not stellar, but I'd take that as a start over anything Doug Davis has done so far.

SWEET SEVENTEEN

2010-05-09T14:36:00.000-05:00

The Brewers have scored 17 runs or more in a game for the third time this season. It's the first time in their history that they have done that. Four other times they hit the 17+ runs mark twice - 1980, 1990, 1996 and 1999.

RAZE THE ROOF

2010-05-05T06:03:00.000-05:00

For all of the whining about the Minnesota Twins building and open-air stadium, they haven't had so much as a rain delay in their 11 home games so far. The coldest game-time temperature was 52 degree for a sunny afternoon game.

I think that a roof on a stadium is something that you overvalue if you have and is sour grapes if you don't. Plenty of colder climate teams have been able to draw fans. Cleveland sold out their stadium for something like three straight years after it opened - the same team that had to play a series in Milwaukee because of the snow a few years ago. I have never liked the confined feeling I get at Miller Park and my preference would be to not have a roof. But I don't have to drive three hours to get there either, so I understand the appeal for the people who do.

I'm not advocating tearing the roof off of Miller Park. The headline was too catchy to pass on. But I'm just sayin'; if I had to do it over again I'd do what the Twins did.

THE HEAT IS ON

2010-05-04T11:41:00.001-05:00

CBSSports.ocom MLB Power Rankings, re: Ken Macha

"He's a goner before too long."

They make a very legitimate point about Macha's use of Craig Counsell at shortstop (who has started three of the last six games) rather than Escobar.

"Management didn't deal away J.J. Hardy so that Macha could give his at-bats to a utility scrub"

Maybe I need to change the vigil.

H-OFF

2010-04-28T05:40:00.000-05:00

Wow. I wrote a few days ago not to worry yet about Trevor Hoffman. Now I'm worried. This is unprecedented. Hoffman has given up 12 earned runs in 8 games including runs allowed two of his three saves. He's never done that before in his career. Since his rookie year in 1993, the most he's given up in a season was 24. He's got half of that already. When this happens to a 42-year old ballplayer, it should sound huge alarms in the organization.

I've said before that I think Carlos Villanueva would be an effective closer in the Majors. If you gave his stats this year to Trevor Hoffman, the Brewers would have three more wins than they do. If the Brewer find themselves in a save situation today, I would give the ball to Carlos. We need another option. I'm very worried that this is not going to get better.

A PRINCE'S RANSOM

2010-04-27T06:26:00.005-05:00

A JSOnline poll yesterday asked:

Is Prince Fielder worth as much as the Phillies will pay Ryan Howard ($125 million over five years)?

60% of the people who responded to the poll said "no". If that sample of representative of the readers of JSOnline, then 60% of their readers are nuts.

Prince Fielder is a better player right now than Ryan Howard. He was a better player last year (1,014 OPS to Howard's .931). He was as good of a player the year before last (.879/.881), and he was a better player the year before that (1.013/.976). Prince Fielder is also 4 years younger than Ryan Howard. Prince will hit 27, the theoretical peak for a player, next year. Howard is already 3 years past that and this 5-year contract extension doesn't kick in for two more years. All of baseball history tells us that Howard's production will be in steady decline over the next seven years.

I would love if the Brewers signed Prince fielder to a 5-year, $125 million contract right now. The fact is though, that they probably can't get him for that. If a 32-36 year old Ryan Howard is worth $125 million, a 26-30 year old Prince Fielder is worth much more.

YOU ARE WHAT YOU EAT

2010-04-27T05:49:00.001-05:00

(Reuters) - People who are depressed eat more chocolate than people who are not, U.S. researchers said on Monday, in a study that puts numbers behind the link between mood and chocolate.

Another example of how, if you are a scientist, completely loosing grasp of the concept of cause and effect is an excellent way to get your name in the newspaper.

Sugar, trans fats, salt, this will be next. The Chocolate Police - coming soon to a government near you.

SCATTERED

2010-04-25T22:04:00.000-05:00

The Brewers scoring has been all over the board so far. In the first 18 games, they have been shut out once, scored one run three times, scored two runs once, three runs twice, four runs once, five runs twice, six runs once, seven runs once, and eight runs four times. Then throw in an 11 and a 20.

They have scored either 0, 1, or 8 or more in 10 of their 18 contests.

The margin of victory in Brewers games has been 4 runs or more 10 times, including each of the last 8. They are 4-6 in those games.

The pitching staff has yet to allow either 2 or 3 runs in a game. They had the two shutouts and the 1-run game against Pittsburgh. In all of the rest, they've allowed 4 or more.

What does all of this mean? Probably nothing.

BIG MONEY

2010-04-21T08:59:00.000-05:00

According to MLB Trade Rumors, the Brewers are one of only three team in the Majors to have never awarded a player a $50 million+ contract. Washington and Tampa Bay are the other two. The largest contract ever for the Brewers is Ryan Braun's current $45 million deal. This ties the Brewers for 28th among the 30 teams in terms of top contracts.

The "talk" number for Prince Fielder is a $200 million deal. If the Brewers signed him to that, or signed him to anything over $185 million, it would vault them all the way up to 3rd on the list behind the $275 million deal that ARod signed with the Yankees and the $252 million deal that ARod signed with the Rangers. Yes - the same ARod.